TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Fidesz-KDNP win 115-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$319,662
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$316,163

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $319,662 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb06b…d199backed Yes9c4,666$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75d…aababacked Yes8c4,353$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f0…4938backed Yes8c4,035$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x494d…92d8backed Yes8c3,944$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50a…6717backed Yes13c3,906$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.0550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x117e…a797backed Yes7c3,318$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae2…1adebacked Yes8c3,223$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc522…2c30backed Yes8c2,762$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76bf…a028backed Yes8c2,707$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes6c2,570$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.155831%18 W · 40 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+35.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeec8…4a47backed Yes7c2,449$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b5…1eddbacked Yes8c2,448$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+1,349.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dc4…0e47backed Yes8c2,394$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe389…26a0backed Yes16c2,224$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c6d…66b7backed Yes8c2,217$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc854…138cbacked Yes9c2,208$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ccd…ec51backed Yes8c2,182$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…59cabacked Yes8c2,167$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff4…bbcbbacked Yes8c2,149$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c41…08c2backed Yes8c2,091$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb0ce…495bbacked Yes9c2,071$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb50b…d661backed Yes7c2,017$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2074…188bbacked Yes8c1,987$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e64…4120backed Yes9c1,985$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a0f…43dabacked Yes9c1,930$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8350%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb50b…0ef2backed Yes9c1,925$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14bf…fcacbacked Yes9c1,858$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0bd6…df61backed Yes8c1,856$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7772…44b4backed Yes9c1,852$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1267…35d1backed Yes7c1,832$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f42…416fbacked Yes8c1,608$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2bd7…fe1dbacked Yes8c1,573$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7158…4eaebacked Yes9c1,570$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0758…afc5backed Yes7c1,541$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4e7…4f23backed Yes8c1,463$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbc2…80d1backed Yes8c1,424$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff11…0df8backed Yes8c1,316$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf62…fcf0backed Yes8c1,296$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x03a9…27edbacked Yes7c1,277$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd66…0755backed Yes8c1,213$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd691…0964backed Yes8c1,144$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc36d…7ceebacked Yes9c1,126$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xebe8…9040backed Yes8c1,110$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f18…4475backed Yes9c1,089$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe5d…5652backed Yes8c1,086$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4dc…33a7backed Yes8c1,083$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4abd…0b21backed Yes8c1,065$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd77…28eabacked Yes10c1,023$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7b8…8664backed Yes11c1,011$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11080%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3aef…f0f1backed Yes5c919.27$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c51…d160backed Yes8c902$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x133f…ebbebacked Yes9c900$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb0d…64acbacked Yes9c891$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce4b…2389backed Yes8c886$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd1…729bbacked Yes9c842$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b95…91d5backed Yes8c803$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99b1…2f62backed Yes7c771$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b11…1498backed Yes9c765$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b5…0352backed Yes9c762$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b9c…0f14backed Yes9c746$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c4…a54abacked Yes9c732$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd31b…4648backed Yes8c721$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x837d…b746backed Yes7c713$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b57…fdd1backed Yes8c686$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0558…fee1backed Yes8c659$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc42e…f1cebacked Yes9c656$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x03cf…803dbacked Yes8c651$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36c9…f3dbbacked Yes9c639$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5df0…1a70backed Yes9c626$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffbf…c5c6backed Yes7c612$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2068…9f2ebacked Yes9c599$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc07…57e1backed Yes5c564.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927e…e071backed Yes9c544.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fd2…c9d4backed Yes7c540$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aa7…295fbacked Yes9c503$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55cd…9ffabacked Yes9c479$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf14e…3955backed Yes9c446$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8316…e206backed Yes9c418$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3fc…0fecbacked Yes7c413$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8968…d38fbacked Yes9c400$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab2…94cbbacked Yes7c373$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes9c355.4$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.913743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x014b…6f2cbacked Yes6c345.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.89214.8%1 W · 20 L-6.6wins-0.31per pick36cpaid-91.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes8c292.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1924110.8%26 W · 215 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda7f…2425backed Yes9c286.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c277.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.822543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155022%11 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7ac…ed75backed Yes9c243$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.38333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+1,349.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa0d…c5fdbacked Yes8c238.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20130%0 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8920…af7abacked Yes9c232.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes5c229.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.499017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes7c223.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.159123.1%21 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61af…fd89backed Yes10c198.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd85b…d467backed Yes5c193.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0670%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b0…7a26backed Yes8c187$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes7c161.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.085728.1%16 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+90.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72dc…cf85backed Yes8c151$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedcd…3e7bbacked Yes9c117$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.