Earnings · resolved market
Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa60f72aa1c1b7a2f2cee9823a510e8dd0a6a1f206355794439a31ca9794c1333
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed No | 20c | 2,253$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.9 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 5c | 2,108$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4a…ade4backed Yes | 80c | 2,100$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e3…b851backed No | 8c | 1,193$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 19c | 1,136$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.22 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 10c | 1,071$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 1,067$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 11c | 1,032$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.1 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 10c | 1,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 15c | 1,000$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.18 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 20c | 819.98$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 16c | 672.11$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.61 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…8ef9backed No | 10c | 597.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 11c | 577.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 7c | 499.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 20c | 444.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 9c | 436.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 15c | 410.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…7cd2backed No | 14c | 388.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked No | 14c | 350$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 12c | 335.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 8c | 320.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 7c | 299.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…148cbacked No | 9c | 284.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 9c | 249.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 14c | 249.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f82…5716backed No | 13c | 222.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked No | 11c | 212.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 9c | 204.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…62d9backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.41per pick | 64cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked No | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…2c5ebacked No | 11c | 196.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7889…e734backed No | 13c | 180.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…0bb8backed No | 8c | 179.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb838…bb80backed No | 12c | 171.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 18c | 164.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 8c | 161.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 78c | 150.56$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed No | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed No | 7c | 135$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…c139backed No | 15c | 134.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 24c | 128.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 10c | 122.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed No | 10c | 112.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7f…8d53backed No | 10c | 101.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…95eabacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb93…df7dbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2916…752abacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 13c | 81.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked No | 19c | 77.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 15c | 73.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a4…c2babacked Yes | 79c | 63.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0511…3069backed No | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee82…f011backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1818…4143backed Yes | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +265.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ca…4472backed Yes | 78c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c83…4a96backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740c…e34abacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.