Token Launches · resolved market
Over $4M committed to the Trove public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bf333e5224977eca61f473e5f1407ae799f37d0d5320c2faef3a752cc167605
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 5,618$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 79c | 2,702$2,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 23c | 2,080$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.55 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 1c | 1,874$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 11c | 1,799$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.95 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 78c | 1,511$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.39 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a9a9backed Yes | 76c | 1,349$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 3c | 1,191$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…0df8backed No | 1c | 1,190$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…d501backed No | 17c | 1,157$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.6 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc29c…04afbacked No | 2c | 1,015$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 1,008$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0c28backed No | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebf…bf3abacked Yes | 78c | 999.99$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 1c | 960.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 11c | 952.96$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.78 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…d38cbacked No | 14c | 800$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…474ebacked No | 23c | 671.07$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.41 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa48e…b476backed No | 20c | 637.05$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…94e5backed No | 5c | 600$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d53…0069backed No | 22c | 554.54$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 2c | 531.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 18c | 470.49$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 19c | 427.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 400.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…14f1backed No | 7c | 370$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…32f0backed No | 6c | 367.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…851cbacked No | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d42…070abacked No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef5…5380backed No | 28c | 296.33$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcadc…d802backed No | 22c | 254.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -6.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5bad…aa78backed No | 15c | 235.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…f315backed No | 11c | 235$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74d…734cbacked No | 27c | 220$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…0b02backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4291…b6bdbacked Yes | 76c | 188$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed No | 19c | 155.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029c…5137backed No | 12c | 155.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c58…7aebbacked No | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x006d…06f8backed No | 20c | 148.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed Yes | 80c | 144.29$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a19…eb54backed No | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 11c | 133.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…3339backed No | 10c | 133.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 13c | 130.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -9.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…c077backed Yes | 77c | 130.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked No | 17c | 123.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed No | 17c | 119.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 26c | 118$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 110.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 26c | 102.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…9850backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 22c | 96.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb8…2c36backed No | 22c | 92.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 90.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…bf25backed Yes | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 13c | 77.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 22c | 77.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 76c | 62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x757b…a0e2backed No | 24c | 61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2143…2e6fbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed Yes | 71c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 23cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdae7…ac2dbacked Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee82…f011backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $4M committed to the Trove public sale?this page
- Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale?Yes won
- Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the Trove public sale?No won
- Over $25M committed to the Trove public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the Trove public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the Trove public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the Trove public sale?Yes won
- Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.