Over $20M committed to the Trove public sale?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41b996542b063ad283ea563fa632139ecae5b8d58a015efa65dab291de820f49

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $245,504
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $267,094

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,504 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5420…dad5backed Yes	0c	25,424$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.73	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	25cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9be3…c64fbacked Yes	7c	11,814$772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$772.17	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+2.3wins	+0.20per pick	34cpaid	+19%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x396f…7f78backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61bb…aca7backed Yes	0c	8,006$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.06	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed Yes	1c	7,197$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.2	162	47.5%77 W · 85 L	+13.9wins	+0.09per pick	39cpaid	+35.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	1c	6,951$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.22	166	2.4%4 W · 162 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes	13c	6,342$853 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$853.48	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16c3…5373backed Yes	1c	5,801$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.3	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	-5.1wins	-0.13per pick	31cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2573…0c73backed Yes	2c	5,651$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.99	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes	41c	5,481$2,226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,226.49	54	53.7%29 W · 25 L	+4.8wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	4,118$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.89	766	3.3%25 W · 741 L	-23.5wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9227…4df5backed Yes	3c	3,096$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.03	62	22.6%14 W · 48 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf67f…31cfbacked No	72c	3,032$2,182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$849.2	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+3.8wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5858…fbbfbacked Yes	6c	2,476$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.36	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3878…1ab8backed Yes	15c	2,300$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes	22c	2,067$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.31	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bdc…b42cbacked Yes	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	33cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No	50c	1,929$964 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$964.35	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes	5c	1,762$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.82	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes	6c	1,731$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.8	94	22.3%21 W · 73 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x116b…6db9backed Yes	7c	1,700$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.3	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.15per pick	18cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc57f…ce96backed Yes	8c	1,686$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22ae…af00backed Yes	26c	1,551$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.48	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd588…cec0backed Yes	7c	1,386$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.52	85	21.2%18 W · 67 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b23…0a3cbacked Yes	40c	1,255$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	8c	1,220$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.01	209	4.3%9 W · 200 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74c1…ab9bbacked Yes	2c	1,102$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.2	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6354…2b6bbacked Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.86	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	11c	988.07$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.77	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77fe…a99abacked Yes	1c	947.38$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.85	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed No	70c	910$641 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$268.59	107	63.6%68 W · 39 L	+11.1wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8cfa…b608backed Yes	11c	835$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.63	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+5.8wins	+0.21per pick	33cpaid	+340.2%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	5c	713.43$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.67	237	7.2%17 W · 220 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37d8…36fdbacked Yes	15c	699.99$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.4	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+2.4wins	+0.10per pick	29cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	3c	685.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.32	75	4%3 W · 72 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	671.66$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.45	328	3%10 W · 318 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee6b…cc03backed Yes	3c	600$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	23c	562.63$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.14	357	12.9%46 W · 311 L	-29.9wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes	6c	553.3$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.33	254	22%56 W · 198 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes	5c	514.77$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	510.64$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	134	3.7%5 W · 129 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes	4c	510$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.49	131	31.3%41 W · 90 L	+12.1wins	+0.09per pick	22cpaid	+164.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	5c	510$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.01	171	2.9%5 W · 166 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked No	60c	480.43$289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.24	155	39.4%61 W · 94 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4c9…3477backed Yes	11c	453.35$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.14per pick	22cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes	6c	437.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.12	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	+3.9wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x268b…e96dbacked Yes	3c	400$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-2.0wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14dc…de4cbacked Yes	24c	374.63$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.88	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-4.1wins	-0.25per pick	32cpaid	-87.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed Yes	6c	358.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+2.2wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78a8…9850backed Yes	6c	300$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	45	35.6%16 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0920…3901backed Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0015…d5b0backed Yes	8c	299.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2e2…06fbbacked Yes	15c	275$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.15	83	37.3%31 W · 52 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes	4c	268.29$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	99	14.1%14 W · 85 L	-8.1wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No	74c	257.04$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.58	99	42.4%42 W · 57 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecd7…30c5backed Yes	6c	244.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9906…c0aebacked Yes	10c	210$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4512…c4a9backed Yes	23c	200$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.29	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24f8…0841backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c4c…a5f0backed Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	91	42.9%39 W · 52 L	+4.9wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x926d…635ebacked Yes	26c	189.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x070e…52d9backed Yes	23c	185.46$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.09	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes	14c	175$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f1a…24a3backed Yes	12c	168.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.25per pick	42cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	15c	165.32$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.96	349	5.7%20 W · 329 L	-25.3wins	-0.07per pick	13cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes	27c	149.91$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Yes	15c	148.84$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.29	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-9.0wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed No	77c	141.81$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.25	52	40.4%21 W · 31 L	+4.2wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0fb…3713backed Yes	51c	137.1$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3d…78e5backed Yes	13c	115.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.31	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf88…3ed6backed Yes	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x590e…eca4backed Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes	15c	80.02$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	156	37.2%58 W · 98 L	-5.6wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd898…aaf1backed No	58c	73.91$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.32	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.1wins	+0.21per pick	49cpaid	+39.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b36…473bbacked No	66c	58.71$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.14	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3006…6f28backed Yes	35c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	37c	42$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.49	463	20.5%95 W · 368 L	-68.1wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x8c94…1175backed Yes	48c	41.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb885…e677backed No	52c	19.24$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.18	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	+112.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No	75c	19.23$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.81	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-12%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No	73c	19$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.2	33	66.7%22 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	65cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Over $20M committed to the Trove public sale?this page
Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale?Yes won
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?No won
Over $25M committed to the Trove public sale?No won
Over $2M committed to the Trove public sale?Yes won
Over $30M committed to the Trove public sale?No won
Over $4M committed to the Trove public sale?Yes won
Over $6M committed to the Trove public sale?Yes won
Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Over $20M committed to the Trove public sale?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event