Token Launches · resolved market
Over $25M committed to the Trove public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5eaf7f11bd06bbaa2aed284ba8446d046772947ec560e08a291e63e61d5b9c44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0015…d5b0backed Yes | 0c | 9,964$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 2c | 5,629$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c3…5373backed Yes | 1c | 5,188$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,000$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +565.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…0a3cbacked Yes | 49c | 3,194$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.74 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 9c | 3,062$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…ce96backed Yes | 10c | 3,039$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdc…b42cbacked Yes | 18c | 2,000$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Yes | 10c | 1,971$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.27 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…02b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,429$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14dc…de4cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,312$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e0…c5d3backed Yes | 2c | 1,247$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 17cpaid | +213.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…ef0fbacked No | 70c | 1,019$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,014$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…0841backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 71c | 982.92$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.74 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd526…03abbacked Yes | 16c | 796.15$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.54 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 709.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed Yes | 4c | 430$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 21c | 416.39$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 340.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c1…0605backed Yes | 5c | 322.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0920…3901backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 71c | 299.99$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…06fbbacked Yes | 7c | 294.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 261.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 257.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 14c | 242.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…7014backed Yes | 29c | 240.76$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 10c | 237.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 9c | 215.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 6c | 209.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…9850backed Yes | 5c | 202.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1986…cf16backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 157.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 10c | 153.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $25M committed to the Trove public sale?this page
- Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale?Yes won
- Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the Trove public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the Trove public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the Trove public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Trove public sale?Yes won
- Over $6M committed to the Trove public sale?Yes won
- Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.