Token Launches · resolved market
Over $2M committed to the Trove public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19708b03fbd1c296351024fd0976d6c6ae605343b00a2704b9083d78272118db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x667c…a1b2backed No | 2c | 8,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed No | 8c | 3,962$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.24 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 13c | 3,523$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.21 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 4c | 3,200$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.93 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…d38cbacked No | 4c | 2,300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 9c | 2,189$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.9 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 6c | 2,125$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.43 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaba3…e6acbacked No | 5c | 2,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…c131backed No | 9c | 1,878$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.92 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 9c | 1,620$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.63 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 1,468$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked No | 11c | 1,439$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.83 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa48e…b476backed No | 9c | 1,366$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 8c | 1,318$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,220$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 6c | 1,065$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 7c | 1,050$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 7c | 1,023$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed No | 7c | 1,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 7c | 717.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb492…8475backed No | 10c | 710$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 621.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…474ebacked No | 12c | 563$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 6c | 546$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed No | 10c | 499.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 8c | 475$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 9c | 433.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…4497backed No | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef5…5380backed No | 10c | 389$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 368.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…7a6bbacked No | 12c | 304.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d53…0069backed No | 14c | 290$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…489cbacked No | 6c | 254.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…32f0backed No | 6c | 234.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 223.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1657…c27ebacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…2a83backed No | 8c | 199.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf312…12b4backed No | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed No | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05fd…50c9backed Yes | 63c | 138.89$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x386f…5fe2backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a19…eb54backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $2M committed to the Trove public sale?this page
- Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale?Yes won
- Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the Trove public sale?No won
- Over $25M committed to the Trove public sale?No won
- Over $30M committed to the Trove public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Trove public sale?Yes won
- Over $6M committed to the Trove public sale?Yes won
- Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.