TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,927,331
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,818,173

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,927,331 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 318 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c57,240$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.61360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes2c50,608$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.275411.1%6 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick4cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e07…efe0backed Yes2c49,574$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.86320%0 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c46,866$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.651015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes7c45,000$3,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,107.63319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes3c41,895$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.918315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked Yes2c37,047$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.259913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b2…17e4backed Yes7c34,000$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,379.99248.3%2 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-81.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes8c32,593$2,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,702.214736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c32,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c30,193$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.811488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b91…e572backed Yes6c23,970$1,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,427.483716.2%6 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed Yes1c20,501$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.9517231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x329d…0ec7backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-97.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c98…ef88backed Yes2c17,978$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350494.1%2 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-79.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes8c17,469$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.5511316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58e2…dfeabacked Yes9c16,670$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-64.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes2c15,431$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.57100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8370…033bbacked Yes6c15,018$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x807e…50d6backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes3c13,568$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.21024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb60…137abacked Yes5c13,201$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-78.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes1c12,315$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.36382.6%1 W · 37 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-86.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd904…137bbacked Yes17c11,765$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6824…f6e6backed Yes10c11,391$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.021118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+84%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48be…caaebacked Yes9c11,120$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.7960%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes2c11,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6583…9b6bbacked Yes3c10,351$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.4750%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c10,214$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.621,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes14c10,011$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.5712012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes4c9,347$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400190%0 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2383…3f78backed Yes11c9,250$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.5340%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6137…293ebacked Yes11c9,183$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ff…96babacked Yes2c8,975$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.46166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c08…3ad5backed Yes6c8,422$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-75.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes5c7,807$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.175324.5%13 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes6c7,686$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.18160%0 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8924…c8d2backed Yes3c7,394$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes6c7,300$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.86425%16 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa740…ee18backed Yes10c6,283$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.15478.5%4 W · 43 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-85.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x33e8…8bf7backed Yes11c5,811$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.47120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd38a…52c0backed Yes5c5,588$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.7647.8%5 W · 59 L-0.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes8c5,510$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.671333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe245…7590backed Yes0c5,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76ca…c08dbacked Yes7c5,302$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.12812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes7c5,265$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35060%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed Yes8c5,163$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.057619.7%15 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9857…bfacbacked Yes2c5,034$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500170%0 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf9…1e27backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e01…2c8abacked Yes15c5,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7502437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes2c4,790$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes11c4,592$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500422.4%1 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee25…6389backed Yes3c4,146$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.951010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76f3…ae51backed Yes15c3,946$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.861723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-38.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd33f…33e1backed Yes3c3,754$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.05140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes7c3,581$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.4987828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeca…09c7backed Yes1c3,485$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8280%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce7b…7677backed Yes10c3,465$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.494617.4%8 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ea…ded9backed Yes2c3,274$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94da…2bf1backed No76c3,210$2,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.73351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes3c3,133$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010315.5%16 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…ee19backed Yes2c3,125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c3,071$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.681693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes3c2,924$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x031f…4ac2backed Yes3c2,919$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes6c2,898$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.8750%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes6c2,783$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17580%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d9d…e979backed Yes6c2,697$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.3250%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a2b…b404backed Yes9c2,237$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200427.1%3 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58f7…6607backed Yes26c2,193$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.4350%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb7…75f2backed No75c2,099$1,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.811172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b7a…8304backed Yes12c2,045$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.294161%25 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x341a…9874backed Yes1c2,034$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b0…9fb0backed Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes8c2,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x173f…69b0backed No76c2,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48014100%14 W · 0 L+3.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-75.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae7c…69dfbacked Yes7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick18cpaid+230.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5001…49c3backed Yes25c1,988$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9797…1d4abacked Yes9c1,956$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.851118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-45%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd58…5980backed Yes26c1,914$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9cf…75d1backed Yes26c1,855$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.171450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x141f…8a4ebacked Yes11c1,851$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b9…4ed0backed Yes4c1,832$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick15cpaid+105.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4cd…f566backed Yes2c1,682$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403917.9%7 W · 32 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+105%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb07a…98f7backed Yes8c1,625$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ffb…b2f8backed Yes7c1,600$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.822119%4 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf28f…c6ccbacked Yes7c1,592$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a2…7967backed Yes19c1,579$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-74.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed No77c1,500$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3401070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+30.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ad…b2d3backed Yes10c1,500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1555639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa31e…e625backed Yes5c1,342$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes11c1,320$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.51432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes8c1,310$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.797231.9%23 W · 49 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ed0…6292backed Yes1c1,299$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes19c1,293$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.0711554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4f18…d980backed Yes8c1,271$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc951…7adcbacked Yes1c1,266$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.06414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-85.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.