TailMyPicks
Market

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $105,000 in November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$274,661
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$322,258

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,661 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd9a5…8ce6backed No1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-76%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a92…071ebacked Yes78c16,537$12,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,667.793076.7%23 W · 7 L+9.0wins+0.30per pick47cpaid+47.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x933f…1540backed Yes67c13,372$8,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,471.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5113…e446backed No20c10,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x705b…1e47backed Yes67c9,611$6,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,209.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick72cpaid-50%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No14c8,100$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.7710545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc951…8ab4backed No30c6,697$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc70…5d1cbacked No0c6,097$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9b…a94abacked No13c6,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f91…f529backed No13c5,732$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ff…1adfbacked No0c5,025$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed Yes75c5,000$3,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23016761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No28c4,914$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.2958126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed No6c4,200$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f9b…f652backed No21c4,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.998231.7%26 W · 56 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4093…823cbacked No32c4,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.981926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes75c3,661$2,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.0612259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ad…b2d3backed No11c3,400$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3775639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x71bf…a0b9backed No15c3,301$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81f5…a96ebacked No37c2,666$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.86633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781e…e475backed No10c2,269$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No11c2,200$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.981333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc1c…ad56backed No13c2,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x438d…ce57backed No4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No21c1,999$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.883751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…2d13backed No1c1,955$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked No17c1,935$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.5711316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce10…51d4backed No39c1,638$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.728038.8%31 W · 49 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No8c1,500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1259824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No14c1,460$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.0364812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3ee5…7bf0backed No35c1,286$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.13342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82bb…85a8backed Yes65c1,286$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.1540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No18c1,229$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22012736.2%46 W · 81 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed No41c1,220$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004920.4%10 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No6c1,177$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.551693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No18c1,098$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.0322550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e01…2c8abacked Yes63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3702437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6fe…71e4backed No21c949.99$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7859…2bfabacked Yes67c900$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes66c888$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.921060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes72c824.98$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.7418315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed No12c771.27$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.782759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x91fc…0109backed No23c700$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1581566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf35e…48a4backed No20c666$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.21241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf750…4abbbacked No36c649.98$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.4911442.1%48 W · 66 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c647$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.691,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cec…831ebacked Yes60c600$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb77…f0b2backed No17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fac…2f27backed Yes63c583.76$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e71…52d1backed Yes63c539.81$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa289…b412backed Yes73c539.2$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.56575.4%49 W · 16 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+19.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x722b…c68bbacked Yes62c521.29$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa581…45b2backed Yes70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x222e…cc07backed Yes63c499.9$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ab…97b6backed Yes63c427.89$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c58…f3c7backed Yes63c410.68$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc68b…f6eebacked Yes62c409.65$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8bf…8ecebacked No10c389.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.92630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa7…e0afbacked Yes68c373$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5949…5fc4backed Yes67c370$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1a…ebcebacked Yes63c361.86$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9807…529dbacked No15c340$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5c5…5dccbacked Yes62c338.69$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7979…202fbacked Yes60c333$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.2683.3%5 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.53per pick31cpaid+168.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe700…d6b9backed No14c324.71$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.46120%0 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x134d…1da2backed Yes70c324.18$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.975164.7%33 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b45…157fbacked No30c323.81$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed No23c306$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2614337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked No23c305$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.217229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x74d0…c59dbacked No18c290.83$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x325a…f4cbbacked Yes62c269.31$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x430a…ff11backed Yes78c266.66$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.975955.9%33 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x849b…cb81backed Yes62c257.87$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No29c256.19$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8555032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed No7c250$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.139546.3%44 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6e1…fa2abacked No20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dd4…98c5backed No36c231$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93c4…dca6backed No9c223.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-66.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0b5…8912backed No9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked No8c222$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.447642.1%32 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf552…3455backed No19c209.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No20c200$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.318239%32 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f19…cddbbacked Yes80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Yes61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7811658.6%68 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56d6…c255backed Yes63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed No31c199.97$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9917953.6%96 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f2…e0d9backed No13c187.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e33…bf4dbacked No20c160$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3290%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2aa…e9e4backed No37c156.89$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8a37…424ebacked Yes64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+136.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee38…a5a9backed No35c151.52$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5240%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes62c150$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.56425%16 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x131a…73f9backed No14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+153.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24c4…3d0fbacked No14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c9…d527backed No37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee5…4dfebacked Yes79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+134.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed No31c125$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.757835.9%28 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5cd…0b56backed No21c119.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe55…9c84backed Yes62c117.53$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.66580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.