TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,445,096
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,476,646

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,445,096 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c169,788$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.79140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc704…045cbacked Yes2c81,531$1,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,587.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b6b…5578backed Yes1c63,591$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.16933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-48.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes1c53,675$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.6170%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c34,017$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.841360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf45…ed5fbacked Yes3c33,526$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.411145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c32,493$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.07482.1%1 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes0c29,999$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12018315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c20,266$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.071488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes1c19,264$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.445411.1%6 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick4cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c17,300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.92290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb229…7298backed Yes6c15,594$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes1c11,058$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.78382.6%1 W · 37 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-86.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes2c9,468$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.95330%0 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa06c…9d93backed Yes4c8,792$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.79633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick5cpaid+541.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dc4…6770backed Yes2c8,426$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9211244.6%50 W · 62 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a46…bdf4backed Yes1c8,114$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f3f…9f48backed Yes1c7,929$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.81616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-73.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddb…6bcabacked Yes1c7,716$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.73540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c7,715$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.181,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac0…4d1ebacked Yes1c6,083$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb955…f161backed Yes0c5,999$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x646f…59dcbacked Yes1c5,680$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf041…bd67backed Yes1c5,500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0022…4f07backed Yes1c5,477$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick3cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a7…5049backed Yes4c5,074$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.72412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-73.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5584…6e2abacked Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe43…3e8dbacked Yes1c4,691$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.03200%0 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd43c…5676backed Yes1c4,280$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef54…d1eebacked Yes1c4,277$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.77837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick16cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc37…fa31backed Yes1c4,157$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x295b…2e44backed Yes1c3,720$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.96728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid-40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes2c3,641$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70190%0 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfae…7922backed Yes1c3,490$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.45195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b7…5dc9backed Yes3c3,169$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes3c3,113$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.843318.2%6 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa776…a17bbacked Yes2c3,000$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121519.9%15 W · 136 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes1c2,959$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207042.9%30 W · 40 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+32.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes1c2,370$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.22205%1 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick11cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes4c2,130$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.981060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fa4…7e44backed Yes1c2,017$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed Yes2c2,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b3…c26dbacked Yes2c1,871$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e0…57d6backed Yes1c1,379$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0216…05b6backed Yes3c1,355$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+354.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb811…5434backed Yes1c1,213$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12229.1%2 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95a5…4f7cbacked Yes2c1,200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2047…37f0backed Yes1c1,025$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaed2…8e93backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8655…59eabacked Yes1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes2c998.37$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.465324.5%13 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28f9…3970backed Yes6c923.41$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe034…5901backed Yes6c767.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes2c736.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15219.5%2 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a7…dcc7backed Yes3c592.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78c6…5196backed Yes2c582.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f8…93c1backed Yes5c373.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-72.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.