Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a2d5924e502f9ebe8cfe64c39f01124980f27c17509c62e775855e78d4a40a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,445,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,476,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,445,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 0c | 169,788$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.79 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc704…045cbacked Yes | 2c | 81,531$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6b…5578backed Yes | 1c | 63,591$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes | 1c | 53,675$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.61 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 34,017$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…ed5fbacked Yes | 3c | 33,526$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 32,493$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.07 | 48 | 2.1%1 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -93.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 0c | 29,999$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,266$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 19,264$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.44 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 17,300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb229…7298backed Yes | 6c | 15,594$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 1c | 11,058$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.78 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 9,468$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.95 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…9d93backed Yes | 4c | 8,792$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +541.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Yes | 2c | 8,426$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.92 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…bdf4backed Yes | 1c | 8,114$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…9f48backed Yes | 1c | 7,929$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddb…6bcabacked Yes | 1c | 7,716$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 7,715$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.18 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac0…4d1ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,083$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb955…f161backed Yes | 0c | 5,999$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…59dcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,680$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…bd67backed Yes | 1c | 5,500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…4f07backed Yes | 1c | 5,477$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a7…5049backed Yes | 4c | 5,074$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.7 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5584…6e2abacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe43…3e8dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,691$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…5676backed Yes | 1c | 4,280$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…d1eebacked Yes | 1c | 4,277$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…fa31backed Yes | 1c | 4,157$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…2e44backed Yes | 1c | 3,720$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,641$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfae…7922backed Yes | 1c | 3,490$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b7…5dc9backed Yes | 3c | 3,169$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,113$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…a17bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 1c | 2,959$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 1c | 2,370$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 4c | 2,130$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa4…7e44backed Yes | 1c | 2,017$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b3…c26dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,871$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e0…57d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,379$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0216…05b6backed Yes | 3c | 1,355$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb811…5434backed Yes | 1c | 1,213$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…4f7cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2047…37f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,025$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…59eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 2c | 998.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f9…3970backed Yes | 6c | 923.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe034…5901backed Yes | 6c | 767.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes | 2c | 736.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a7…dcc7backed Yes | 3c | 592.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…5196backed Yes | 2c | 582.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f8…93c1backed Yes | 5c | 373.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $105,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.