TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,803,160
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,528,742

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,803,160 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5323…bb93backed Yes1c109,954$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c104,498$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.9818315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90b5…d709backed Yes1c59,011$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.6140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x838b…a75cbacked Yes1c52,300$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.1300%0 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x567d…f927backed Yes3c47,611$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8768…dd9bbacked Yes2c45,000$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7651533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x329d…0ec7backed Yes0c33,881$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.79531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-97.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e8…8bf7backed Yes2c33,124$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.25120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes1c32,779$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.0923411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8de9…8b47backed Yes1c30,850$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c30,472$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.691015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c7…4421backed Yes0c26,983$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c24,272$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.062290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes1c23,000$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.16425%16 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked Yes1c18,155$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.939913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c17,841$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.941488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes1c16,874$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.315411.1%6 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick4cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf604…7017backed Yes2c16,753$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes1c14,557$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.571519.9%15 W · 136 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ca0…d4c7backed Yes2c12,986$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.45120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40b1…be75backed Yes1c12,174$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes0c11,131$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3190%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f70…e48dbacked Yes1c10,583$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bc0backed Yes2c10,432$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.91120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5599…98c3backed Yes2c10,107$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.382634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a94…8a1dbacked Yes0c10,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-90.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9485…0cd0backed Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa207…bcdcbacked Yes1c10,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d92…0748backed Yes1c9,779$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe49b…cd66backed Yes2c9,031$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146b…203bbacked Yes1c8,266$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.2333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01bc…7b61backed Yes1c7,928$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32e2…08ebbacked Yes3c7,449$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3065…1c02backed Yes1c7,286$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…7eb4backed Yes2c6,474$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecd…d2e3backed Yes1c6,406$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e96…0b3bbacked Yes2c6,404$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ae…6c6ebacked Yes1c6,388$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d2e…e4cebacked Yes2c6,097$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c00…cddfbacked Yes0c6,050$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa269…ddc9backed Yes1c5,500$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x807e…50d6backed Yes0c5,190$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.33180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4da1…f3c5backed Yes1c5,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes0c4,841$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206013.3%8 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a92…071ebacked Yes1c4,094$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.193076.7%23 W · 7 L+9.0wins+0.30per pick47cpaid+47.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x5a13…e0f9backed Yes1c3,994$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd19a…6ea7backed Yes0c3,940$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83c7…afa0backed Yes2c3,840$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2072…1201backed Yes1c3,375$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ca…197abacked Yes1c3,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce8…2043backed Yes2c3,302$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8409…4159backed Yes1c3,250$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae1d…74cfbacked Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes2c3,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45170%0 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0ea…d32ebacked Yes1c3,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26aa…567cbacked Yes1c2,923$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x125b…e22bbacked Yes0c2,883$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d1…d762backed Yes1c2,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes1c2,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207042.9%30 W · 40 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+32.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9516…695abacked Yes1c2,692$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e17…fa8bbacked Yes4c2,510$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11090%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xccf7…836abacked Yes1c2,214$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb217…ab1dbacked Yes2c2,184$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc951…7adcbacked Yes1c2,110$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.66414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-85.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc6…8a73backed Yes1c2,083$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57eb…3a67backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc07c…c4b7backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10150%0 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf367…40febacked Yes1c2,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8726…797cbacked Yes1c2,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2460%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,948$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.31,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef87…4940backed Yes1c1,875$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+257.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5716…bf0bbacked Yes1c1,759$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198f…be7cbacked Yes1c1,600$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.681729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac7e…ce88backed Yes2c1,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde48…7c94backed Yes1c1,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1120…70dabacked Yes2c1,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe9b…4902backed Yes1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2439…8729backed Yes2c1,176$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes1c1,149$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.615324.5%13 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e75…7b2dbacked Yes2c1,121$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a0…5818backed Yes2c1,111$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes1c1,062$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-74.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb12…6a49backed Yes2c1,060$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.14425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-59.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f6e…9f41backed Yes2c1,053$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aea…518fbacked Yes2c1,053$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…c8dcbacked Yes2c1,053$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5db7…b194backed Yes2c1,053$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c1,041$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.991693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd01…4148backed Yes2c1,019$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb5…ed22backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaed2…8e93backed Yes1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10be…58c7backed Yes2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x62c7…9497backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x571d…c0f2backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc706…da0dbacked Yes2c914.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3870%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d9b…ceb2backed Yes1c895.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x437d…6c11backed Yes3c769.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04de…6835backed Yes2c757.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8042…82a7backed Yes2c733.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-88.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64f6…1698backed Yes2c640.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.