TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,216,789
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,328,733

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,216,789 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c86,611$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.2218315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes2c35,000$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.05319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c34,549$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.652290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c26,674$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.051488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c25,735$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.341015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e8…8bf7backed Yes1c24,189$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.93120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x590a…0a00backed Yes3c23,000$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c16,385$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.461360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2737…8610backed Yes1c16,193$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23850%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes1c13,509$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.15411.1%6 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick4cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e07…efe0backed Yes1c13,469$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.24320%0 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked Yes1c13,291$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.79913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes4c13,051$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes1c13,000$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.516425%16 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe045…508dbacked Yes3c11,707$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17cc…8b5ebacked Yes4c10,000$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36bb…3345backed Yes3c7,195$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25080%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b39…9e5fbacked Yes1c7,050$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes1c6,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100422.4%1 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa740…ee18backed Yes3c6,584$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.7478.5%4 W · 43 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-85.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9485…0cd0backed Yes1c6,529$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c6,334$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.341,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdea…6951backed Yes2c6,288$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+160.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe49b…cd66backed Yes3c5,860$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd586…87e2backed Yes3c5,724$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76ca…c08dbacked Yes2c5,646$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.17812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes1c5,500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651519.9%15 W · 136 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8082…f32ebacked Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes1c4,475$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5382.6%1 W · 37 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-86.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70d1…21d8backed Yes1c4,255$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes2c3,525$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9911316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa30c…14febacked Yes3c3,472$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdaa…6f38backed Yes2c3,333$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc951…7adcbacked Yes1c3,333$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.44414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-85.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf702…b6a5backed Yes3c3,299$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7770%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d4…6a60backed Yes3c3,105$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes4c3,000$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.647810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a5…8ce6backed Yes3c3,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-76%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7087…f4ebbacked Yes2c2,972$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb21d…e336backed Yes3c2,957$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d19…4513backed Yes3c2,942$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48fc…5f16backed Yes0c2,857$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41e…3133backed Yes4c2,832$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe700…d6b9backed Yes4c2,815$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.95120%0 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd82f…1d21backed Yes4c2,559$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6570%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd33f…33e1backed Yes1c2,512$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…22a1backed Yes3c2,483$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4c8…5449backed Yes2c2,132$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4080%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0ae…a52dbacked Yes3c1,894$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…959cbacked Yes4c1,830$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ccc…4825backed Yes2c1,800$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes2c1,722$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.055324.5%13 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes3c1,718$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe3af…1aa6backed Yes1c1,683$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.253611.1%4 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f36…cf93backed Yes3c1,620$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes2c1,610$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.41693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ffb…b2f8backed Yes3c1,537$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.72119%4 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde48…7c94backed Yes1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa768…9eb0backed Yes1c1,441$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c1,400$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.54163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes2c1,400$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.46810.3%7 W · 61 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-77.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6393…0614backed Yes1c1,336$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x403f…18c3backed Yes2c1,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd38c…f6f3backed Yes1c1,300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.41414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5380…9592backed Yes2c1,233$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204827.1%13 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe43…c5b1backed Yes1c1,200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.580%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198f…be7cbacked Yes1c1,070$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.541729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a38…360bbacked Yes3c1,019$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.911165.2%6 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-77.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fed…6ffbbacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6d…d787backed Yes1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-79.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefee…1c08backed Yes1c1,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1490%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09d7…2dbfbacked Yes1c999.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12310%0 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c8a…f044backed Yes2c999.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1850%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa316…3a38backed Yes3c831.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ba…f30dbacked Yes2c700$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+73.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90b5…d709backed Yes3c683.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.38140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x17d9…a739backed Yes3c665.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.31520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-63.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3430…275bbacked Yes2c623.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd052…bf31backed Yes4c600$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf86b…f53dbacked Yes3c598.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f18…b27dbacked Yes3c591.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6876…4df4backed Yes2c580.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0141…c2dabacked Yes3c500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165123.5%12 W · 39 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+46.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d76…33dbbacked Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a2…d2e7backed Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8042…82a7backed Yes3c482.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-88.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0867…c3abbacked Yes3c479.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66d8…0186backed Yes4c450.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8f…d7b9backed Yes3c410$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef56…618cbacked Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7532…c6fcbacked Yes4c400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411265.2%73 W · 39 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfe7…8b0bbacked Yes3c391.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd4d…9546backed Yes3c390$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04c4…2bcebacked Yes3c383.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x239b…5e6abacked Yes3c349.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5685…1567backed Yes3c340$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.270%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddd…ce73backed Yes3c312.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeab…04d3backed Yes3c310$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.23425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.