Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e147ecbed87cf86eba2c79590a1b32ec5d5bb8d59a3d5668844715f8ab4f2a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,558,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,497,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,558,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 0c | 164,311$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.62 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc704…045cbacked Yes | 4c | 136,978$4,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,914.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb229…7298backed Yes | 9c | 67,726$6,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,335.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6b…5578backed Yes | 2c | 53,537$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 1c | 36,531$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.25 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes | 1c | 27,338$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 26,297$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 17,585$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 16,874$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.64 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…0393backed Yes | 1c | 15,464$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…a979backed Yes | 1c | 15,419$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.03 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…4526backed Yes | 2c | 15,090$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…9f48backed Yes | 2c | 12,613$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…4f07backed Yes | 1c | 12,369$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 2c | 11,645$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.15 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes | 2c | 11,348$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.06 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x262b…df00backed Yes | 1c | 10,120$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b31…b13ebacked Yes | 4c | 8,052$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2737…8610backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…9342backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d62…9a1bbacked Yes | 2c | 7,590$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…b160backed Yes | 1c | 7,050$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…8c0abacked Yes | 2c | 6,221$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…7adcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,632$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 5,536$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 5,501$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.52 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…fa31backed Yes | 2c | 5,125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…ed5fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,048$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6a…becebacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb76f…970cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,581$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…d4a7backed Yes | 2c | 4,263$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…7005backed Yes | 3c | 3,936$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…2dbfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,800$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…d1eebacked Yes | 2c | 3,653$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…f1ecbacked Yes | 6c | 3,350$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…93d0backed Yes | 1c | 3,300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…2e44backed Yes | 1c | 3,150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…c734backed Yes | 6c | 3,121$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.06 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…d6f3backed Yes | 2c | 3,098$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe43…3e8dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…bdf4backed Yes | 1c | 2,824$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0566…cb97backed Yes | 2c | 2,754$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 4c | 2,547$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac0…4d1ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 1c | 2,326$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf8…9dc1backed Yes | 2c | 2,062$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc5…218abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,983$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,915$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 48 | 2.1%1 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -93.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6c…3647backed Yes | 3c | 1,800$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…5676backed Yes | 1c | 1,753$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a84…171cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,669$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…4f7cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…21a0backed Yes | 2c | 1,395$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…8184backed Yes | 4c | 1,338$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f8…93c1backed Yes | 5c | 1,330$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 1c | 1,172$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a0…f6dfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,070$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f8…f072backed Yes | 1c | 1,050$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…1245backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a7…5049backed Yes | 8c | 836.09$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…3ecabacked Yes | 2c | 691$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf1…721cbacked Yes | 2c | 690$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…4cfbbacked Yes | 2c | 688$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes | 4c | 672.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 49 | 2%1 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 395.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c7…e539backed Yes | 6c | 338.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7912…ffc3backed Yes | 4c | 337.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…75dcbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $105,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.