TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,558,734
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,497,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,558,734 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c164,311$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.62140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc704…045cbacked Yes4c136,978$4,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,914.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb229…7298backed Yes9c67,726$6,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,335.1640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6b…5578backed Yes2c53,537$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.85933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-48.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c36,531$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.2518315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes1c27,338$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.370%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c26,297$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.31488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c17,585$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.62290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c16,874$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.641,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9883…0393backed Yes1c15,464$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.3350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…a979backed Yes1c15,419$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.033225%8 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec5c…4526backed Yes2c15,090$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…9f48backed Yes2c12,613$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.52616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-73.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0022…4f07backed Yes1c12,369$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick3cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes2c11,645$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.15382.6%1 W · 37 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-86.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes2c11,348$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.063318.2%6 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x262b…df00backed Yes1c10,120$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b31…b13ebacked Yes4c8,052$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2737…8610backed Yes1c8,000$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45c9…9342backed Yes1c8,000$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d62…9a1bbacked Yes2c7,590$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c97…b160backed Yes1c7,050$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd05…8c0abacked Yes2c6,221$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc951…7adcbacked Yes1c5,632$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.66414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-85.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c5,536$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.611360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes4c5,501$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.52330%0 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc37…fa31backed Yes2c5,125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf45…ed5fbacked Yes2c5,048$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.281145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b6a…becebacked Yes2c5,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes1c5,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271519.9%15 W · 136 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb76f…970cbacked Yes1c4,581$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50200%0 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x531a…d4a7backed Yes2c4,263$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6096…7005backed Yes3c3,936$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09d7…2dbfbacked Yes1c3,800$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8310%0 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef54…d1eebacked Yes2c3,653$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.79837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick16cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x865a…f1ecbacked Yes6c3,350$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x100a…93d0backed Yes1c3,300$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x295b…2e44backed Yes1c3,150$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.95728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid-40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…c734backed Yes6c3,121$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.06130%0 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c80…d6f3backed Yes2c3,098$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.97128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-88.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe43…3e8dbacked Yes1c3,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39200%0 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a46…bdf4backed Yes1c2,824$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0566…cb97backed Yes2c2,754$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes4c2,547$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ac0…4d1ebacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes1c2,326$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.14205%1 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick11cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaf8…9dc1backed Yes2c2,062$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc5…218abacked Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c1,983$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.431693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c1,915$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.57482.1%1 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b6c…3647backed Yes3c1,800$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.470%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd43c…5676backed Yes1c1,753$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2360%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a84…171cbacked Yes1c1,669$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95a5…4f7cbacked Yes4c1,400$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18c3…21a0backed Yes2c1,395$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.89230%0 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x366c…8184backed Yes4c1,338$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.52030%6 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90f8…93c1backed Yes5c1,330$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-72.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes1c1,172$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4a0…f6dfbacked Yes2c1,070$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f8…f072backed Yes1c1,050$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.85300%0 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd026…1245backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505119.6%10 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a7…5049backed Yes8c836.09$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.222412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-73.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x947d…3ecabacked Yes2c691$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bf1…721cbacked Yes2c690$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd721…4cfbbacked Yes2c688$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4570%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes4c672.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7219.5%2 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc61a…8e82backed Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5492%1 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-83.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9508%4 W · 46 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes9c395.04$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4364812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb7c7…e539backed Yes6c338.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7912…ffc3backed Yes4c337.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xebd5…75dcbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.