TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,748,162
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,456,237

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,748,162 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 457 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1005…a843backed Yes27c135,448$36,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,109.04825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf45…ed5fbacked Yes9c128,034$11,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,274.531145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes11c76,106$8,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,441.1735123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes14c71,933$9,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,908.32330%0 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c98…ef88backed Yes12c64,427$7,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,594.5494.1%2 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-79.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes14c43,615$6,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,128.9525824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c43,463$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.96940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c41,238$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.791015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes3c35,492$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.895514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.2wins0.00per pick15cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe976…68d1backed Yes7c32,914$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2001717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-61.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95d4…c38cbacked No75c30,000$22,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,5002540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c29,071$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.481360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes5c20,015$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.7423411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb229…7298backed Yes35c19,363$6,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,853.2640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c16,078$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.052290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd62…9fe2backed Yes6c16,000$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92850%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93ce…9571backed Yes7c15,867$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed No79c15,748$12,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,375.0314337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9821…6c9dbacked Yes2c15,659$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes2c15,652$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.58382.6%1 W · 37 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-86.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c14,518$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.331488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1be…3772backed Yes14c12,815$1,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,738.452412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes13c12,760$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,690.2187828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe49d…c3dbbacked Yes8c12,578$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.33520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+29.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes4c12,113$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.918315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ea…2314backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes17c11,811$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.4112824.2%31 W · 97 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dcb…bf17backed Yes0c11,210$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4e…d609backed No79c11,003$8,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,283.54100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+91.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes4c10,995$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.88147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-91.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…a979backed Yes3c10,822$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.323225%8 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee5c…1dc2backed Yes37c10,704$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick35cpaid+66.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c10,510$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.271,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc199…8cd5backed Yes1c10,160$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6460%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes8c10,040$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.085324.5%13 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes3c10,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.832520%5 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd547…f7a8backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes18c9,585$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,715.1811554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes6c9,000$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5061198.4%10 W · 109 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+90.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6304…7ebfbacked Yes7c8,881$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.750%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf371…9812backed Yes19c8,016$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.282832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef54…d1eebacked Yes4c7,910$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.1837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick16cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xabb8…c734backed Yes7c7,790$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.78130%0 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c98…29fcbacked No79c7,617$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,616.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+70.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07a7…0a73backed Yes3c7,570$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf87…708cbacked Yes12c7,252$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.91225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce7a…9238backed No69c7,003$4,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,164.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bae…55b5backed Yes8c7,000$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5781323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid-48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6198…476bbacked Yes2c6,810$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes6c6,702$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.763318.2%6 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4938…ce0cbacked No79c6,678$5,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.734100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed Yes31c6,357$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.693759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe47…3e2fbacked Yes4c6,108$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.26812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes3c6,000$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.04267.7%2 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-69.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04cf…5cf4backed Yes8c5,893$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes8c5,885$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No72c5,849$4,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650.8922550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66c2…0f22backed Yes12c5,845$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.81450%7 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8317…f2f3backed Yes6c5,710$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.03650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes11c5,509$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.28466.5%3 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-81.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb200…691dbacked Yes4c5,490$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb4a…4ef5backed No66c5,200$3,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,768.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+57.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d96…f1e6backed Yes1c5,196$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes6c5,039$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.9755032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes15c5,000$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7303455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x538c…b902backed Yes1c4,787$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ce…3236backed Yes2c4,738$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes3c4,601$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.281693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84e8…d6c3backed Yes11c4,500$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.172030%6 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes1c4,334$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.34362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc122…731fbacked Yes5c4,291$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x104b…7a0ebacked Yes6c4,260$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.06616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x295b…2e44backed Yes8c4,151$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.96728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid-40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c4,132$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18c3…21a0backed Yes2c3,999$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.96230%0 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No77c3,955$3,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.0658126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes4c3,742$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.725617.9%10 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-32.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47e6…fd61backed Yes3c3,675$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8b0…0908backed Yes8c3,571$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c98…a50fbacked Yes17c3,528$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes5c3,439$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.7190%0 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2af…412ebacked Yes11c3,409$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00b5…b3cabacked Yes3c3,379$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43e0…0eebbacked Yes18c3,288$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13d6…5cc7backed Yes2c3,187$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes4c3,181$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.532910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x733c…d092backed Yes36c3,134$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.56933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-46%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd026…1245backed Yes7c3,100$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.55119.6%10 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb4…b811backed Yes10c3,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd99f…4768backed Yes20c2,850$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.43036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81fa…c4d6backed Yes18c2,839$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.363847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe35c…f4ebbacked Yes3c2,830$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes10c2,733$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.382416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd71…d18dbacked Yes13c2,731$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9615…38acbacked Yes7c2,703$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49b3…6486backed Yes19c2,675$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x366c…8184backed Yes8c2,653$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.752030%6 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb836…9e4ebacked Yes33c2,630$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.54837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+122.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c2,444$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.0164812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7d24…f826backed Yes25c2,415$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.