TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,055,404
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,089,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,055,404 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes8c195,000$16,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,259.9319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Yes3c143,710$4,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,882.8670%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes2c65,683$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.8218315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c52,943$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.371015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c46,352$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.11360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x562f…e46fbacked Yes4c43,126$1,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,640.79520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-50%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes2c42,258$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.165411.1%6 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick4cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf604…7017backed Yes9c32,401$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,800333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c30,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes1c27,485$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.51382.6%1 W · 37 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-86.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c25,100$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.41488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x329d…0ec7backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-97.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes3c18,850$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.561910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes1c17,733$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.36430%0 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb60…137abacked Yes6c16,077$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-78.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x104a…5b05backed Yes6c15,211$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9008017.5%14 W · 66 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x590a…0a00backed Yes5c15,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58e2…dfeabacked Yes7c14,990$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-64.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c5d…0b1abacked Yes4c14,614$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.5100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd904…137bbacked Yes10c13,676$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,37760%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked Yes2c12,810$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.519913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ca…c08dbacked Yes5c11,439$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.43812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe952…a415backed Yes1c11,412$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c10,484$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.481,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1363…a917backed Yes7c10,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes2c9,100$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1936425%16 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9716…7889backed Yes5c8,880$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a78…b918backed Yes4c8,333$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b91…e572backed Yes4c8,253$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.543716.2%6 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes7c7,999$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.89643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes11c7,917$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.8712012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes5c7,500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010315.5%16 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes6c7,341$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.790%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c5a…4b33backed Yes14c7,297$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb07a…98f7backed Yes6c7,195$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.761816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee25…6389backed Yes4c7,149$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.761010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes3c7,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdaa…6f38backed Yes5c7,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes5c6,590$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300190%0 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa2…b94fbacked Yes5c6,499$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bc0backed Yes2c6,070$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.81120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2737…8610backed Yes6c6,023$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.0150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e07…efe0backed Yes4c5,544$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249320%0 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f0a…6187backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa740…ee18backed Yes14c5,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690478.5%4 W · 43 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-85.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes3c4,778$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166160%0 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf10b…97a5backed Yes11c4,545$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes6c4,442$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.9411316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e8…8bf7backed Yes10c4,370$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes3c3,398$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x567d…f927backed Yes15c3,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36bb…3345backed Yes11c3,182$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35080%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes13c3,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…959cbacked Yes12c2,818$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.7840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4757…63cbbacked Yes5c2,751$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.4870%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes4c2,661$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.77520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa899…3802backed Yes6c2,513$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa248…26a6backed Yes7c2,502$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.47616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+85.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d46…dcd1backed Yes14c2,500$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.31145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+45.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c2,473$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.211693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd33f…33e1backed Yes3c2,413$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.64140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes4c2,407$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.95324.5%13 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b9…4ed0backed Yes3c2,333$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick15cpaid+105.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes1c2,282$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.98270%0 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f66…a587backed Yes9c2,187$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5001…49c3backed Yes14c2,143$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes4c2,140$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6118425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe521…7fa1backed Yes7c2,120$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes4c2,065$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.511024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27e6…c0a9backed Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa44c…994fbacked Yes5c1,958$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce7…dc6fbacked Yes4c1,903$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfea1…50dbbacked Yes4c1,893$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd29…19acbacked Yes5c1,833$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe700…d6b9backed Yes14c1,786$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250120%0 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x690c…92acbacked Yes5c1,647$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb75…910abacked Yes6c1,633$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick7cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc951…7adcbacked Yes1c1,609$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.23414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-85.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes5c1,555$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.857231.9%23 W · 49 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e15…ee86backed Yes4c1,527$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9950%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed2d…f2bbbacked Yes3c1,430$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b5…c106backed Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes4c1,400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.011127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick15cpaid+162.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6aa…0bd0backed Yes3c1,264$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a2b…b404backed Yes5c1,115$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60427.1%3 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e98…d70ebacked Yes4c1,100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe079…e93fbacked Yes14c1,071$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3867…ae73backed Yes5c1,044$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9149…e4e4backed Yes4c1,025$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fec…728ebacked Yes4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ef…81c0backed Yes3c1,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9950%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5292…f5bfbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d3…475ebacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207219.4%14 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c8a…f044backed Yes5c1,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3ee5…7bf0backed Yes11c999.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes5c999.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45170%0 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.