TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Ohio State vs. Indiana

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Indianaof Ohio State, Indiana
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,286,142
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,496,721

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,286,142 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 688 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7435…a620backed Ohio State64c314,430$200,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200,847.08944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Indiana37c283,941$105,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178,019.693548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1af1…0f7bbacked Indiana38c212,494$81,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131,427.77875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+59.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Ohio State62c195,475$121,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,903.915639.3%22 W · 34 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Indiana38c167,533$63,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104,131.874738.3%18 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c0b…9f41backed Ohio State69c160,269$110,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110,585.41875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Ohio State61c157,314$95,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95,840.2968440.8%279 W · 405 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Ohio State62c128,200$79,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,48421055.2%116 W · 94 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Indiana36c108,660$39,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,542.524163.4%26 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb1d9…5ee1backed Indiana37c104,534$38,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,856.33966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+44%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Indiana38c100,000$38,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,999.9812055%66 W · 54 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Ohio State62c100,000$62,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,999.989750.5%49 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Ohio State63c92,800$58,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,376.6520450.5%103 W · 101 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Indiana39c82,315$31,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,497.6826244.3%116 W · 146 L-1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ca8…bf49backed Ohio State65c70,694$45,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,849.1714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-81.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Indiana34c62,764$21,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,360.2916234%55 W · 107 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Ohio State59c59,065$34,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,555.3113933.1%46 W · 93 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2232…f6fabacked Ohio State63c42,032$26,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,603.243250%16 W · 16 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Indiana38c40,438$15,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,873.1258850.2%295 W · 293 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Ohio State62c40,000$24,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,799.9615352.3%80 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Ohio State64c39,063$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00019362.2%120 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd2…31f4backed Ohio State63c26,825$16,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,900771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Ohio State59c25,534$15,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,065.181546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Ohio State56c24,726$13,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,743.5440541.2%167 W · 238 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Ohio State30c23,728$7,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,033.0121538.6%83 W · 132 L-0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Ohio State61c23,329$14,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,327.197929.1%23 W · 56 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-41.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9dd…3cc5backed Indiana30c22,519$6,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,801.27560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Ohio State62c21,400$13,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,221.7520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Ohio State62c21,085$13,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,112.445957.6%34 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Indiana31c20,842$6,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,314.2123751.1%121 W · 116 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Indiana37c20,270$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,770.275149%25 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa25…05e8backed Indiana37c20,000$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,599.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc62a…c2c7backed Indiana36c19,000$6,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,159.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+174%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Indiana35c17,683$6,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,493.9510046%46 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Indiana39c17,260$6,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,484.5117443.7%76 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Indiana37c15,500$5,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,76511248.2%54 W · 58 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Ohio State52c15,115$7,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,893.9662843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Ohio State64c15,000$9,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,550.6619842.9%85 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Indiana37c15,000$5,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,4503540%14 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Ohio State62c14,841$9,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,208.042,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Indiana58c14,381$8,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,081.693357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eb7…05f6backed Ohio State63c13,708$8,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,616.24141.5%17 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9e6…1dc2backed Ohio State50c13,262$6,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,631.161553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Ohio State41c12,908$5,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,245.755263.5%33 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Indiana43c12,498$5,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,123.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Ohio State64c12,296$7,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,856.1429055.2%160 W · 130 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Indiana37c12,000$4,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,559.983151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Indiana54c11,338$6,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,215.391546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+55.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Indiana37c11,259$4,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,138.2781847.9%392 W · 426 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Ohio State57c11,105$6,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,3302343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Ohio State64c10,959$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0008348.2%40 W · 43 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Ohio State48c10,417$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Indiana37c10,062$3,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,379.165446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28b1…5a3fbacked Ohio State60c10,035$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0003256.3%18 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Indiana37c10,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,30027246%125 W · 147 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Ohio State64c10,000$6,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,3602450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Ohio State65c10,000$6,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,489.991421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-69.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Ohio State63c9,506$5,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,989.052528%7 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-44.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Indiana37c9,459$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,959.463855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c6f…89b9backed Ohio State63c9,000$5,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6709844.9%44 W · 54 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Ohio State60c8,859$5,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,321.071741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3214…6babbacked Ohio State64c8,744$5,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,566520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-72.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21d8…ad91backed Ohio State18c8,447$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5008145.7%37 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d7d…ec26backed Ohio State67c8,000$5,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3601050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51b6…efecbacked Ohio State64c8,000$5,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,120520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-70.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Ohio State53c7,972$4,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,212.0855350.3%278 W · 275 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x045d…d649backed Ohio State39c7,543$2,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,921.099142.9%39 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b4f…37b8backed Ohio State63c7,533$4,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,745.821266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Indiana29c7,000$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,940.378448.8%41 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Indiana37c5,918$2,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,755.374748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac88…c4d9backed Indiana37c5,875$2,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,701.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7153…bf80backed Ohio State73c5,874$4,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,261.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6332…5a1abacked Ohio State51c5,868$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed88…e838backed Indiana54c5,809$3,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,654.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Indiana36c5,575$2,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,567.918752.9%46 W · 41 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4392…68c3backed Ohio State74c5,567$4,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,122.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Indiana36c5,358$1,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,420.0648546.8%227 W · 258 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x20e2…667fbacked Ohio State62c5,300$3,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,28640%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3092…e813backed Ohio State63c5,295$3,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,335.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e8…368dbacked Indiana37c5,289$1,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,331.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Ohio State2c5,213$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.13790%0 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Ohio State63c5,000$3,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1408544.7%38 W · 47 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Ohio State63c5,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,15019849%97 W · 101 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Indiana37c4,962$1,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,106.6540244.8%180 W · 222 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97a0…1509backed Indiana37c4,959$1,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,100.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Ohio State50c4,929$2,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,445.725152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Ohio State26c4,878$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2503231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8768…dd9bbacked Ohio State64c4,700$3,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0082867.9%19 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b22…c59cbacked Indiana41c4,500$1,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,673.21050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6e…167abacked Ohio State70c4,298$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e77…482ebacked Indiana39c4,235$1,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,583.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Ohio State66c4,126$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,710.082045%9 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Indiana38c4,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4804643.5%20 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc0…2b8fbacked Ohio State64c3,970$2,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,540.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Ohio State63c3,968$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5006855.9%38 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7bf…b567backed Indiana37c3,930$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,494.74540%18 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Ohio State47c3,748$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.9620039.5%79 W · 121 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Ohio State46c3,739$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7207136.6%26 W · 45 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x31ac…392cbacked Indiana38c3,727$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,310.612630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f92…1862backed Ohio State64c3,594$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.