College Football · resolved market
Spread: Ohio State (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39a2b6d4078f47070bdd26a0caf87ceb9f811b6e809205441752af59625793d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indianaof Ohio State, Indiana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $244,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $244,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Ohio State | 50c | 159,755$79,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,877.5 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Indiana | 50c | 85,848$42,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,924.06 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Indiana | 51c | 79,537$40,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,220.51 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Ohio State | 48c | 18,740$8,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,928.11 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Indiana | 51c | 17,500$8,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,575 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Indiana | 53c | 14,824$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,024.29 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Indiana | 52c | 12,000$6,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,760 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Ohio State | 47c | 10,666$5,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,004.54 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ohio State | 48c | 5,699$2,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,735.59 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Ohio State | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Ohio State | 48c | 3,681$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.15 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Ohio State | 48c | 3,467$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.79 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Indiana | 50c | 2,457$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.19 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…5a1abacked Ohio State | 50c | 2,009$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Ohio State | 40c | 1,472$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.66 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…55f7backed Ohio State | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9123…9dd3backed Ohio State | 49c | 809.29$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.55 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…d649backed Ohio State | 50c | 536$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…31eabacked Ohio State | 50c | 436$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Ohio State | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +8.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Indiana | 51c | 259$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.4 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Ohio State | 49c | 250$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Indiana | 51c | 247.45$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…c16cbacked Ohio State | 50c | 225.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Ohio State | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Ohio State | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c8…a3b0backed Ohio State | 50c | 197.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…ae92backed Ohio State | 46c | 153.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd57a…add6backed Ohio State | 49c | 124$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…29c2backed Indiana | 51c | 83.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Ohio State | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b33…cb06backed Ohio State | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…eccfbacked Ohio State | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Indiana | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Indiana | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…79a8backed Ohio State | 50c | 32.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Ohio State | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ohio State (-3.5)this page
- O/U 48.5Under won
- Ohio State vs. IndianaIndiana won
- Ohio State vs. Indiana: 1H MoneylineOhio State won
- Ohio State vs. Indiana: O/U 46.5Under won
- Ohio State vs. Indiana: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Ohio State (-4.5)Indiana won
- Spread: Ohio State (-4.5)Indiana won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.