TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Vikings vs. Cowboys

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vikingsof Vikings, Cowboys
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,760,709
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,791,345

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,760,709 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 731 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Vikings31c391,888$123,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268,539.6417041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Vikings31c200,000$62,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137,999.9610333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Vikings31c200,000$62,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137,999.934250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e6…025bbacked Cowboys70c147,205$102,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,5001145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Cowboys0c84,974$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.162528%7 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Cowboys69c82,149$56,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,726.3430043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Cowboys64c80,000$51,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,199.9811168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Vikings30c77,650$23,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,354.655431.5%17 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Cowboys58c71,162$41,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,143.5273651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c3a…8679backed Cowboys69c66,667$46,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Vikings32c58,568$18,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,649.6218650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Cowboys69c55,190$38,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,03319152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2232…f6fabacked Cowboys78c51,585$40,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,111.252470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Cowboys67c46,013$30,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,893.425940.7%24 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Vikings32c43,850$14,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,81827454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c81…fce3backed Cowboys72c43,000$30,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,9305250%26 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e25…0af8backed Cowboys69c41,249$28,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,461.591136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Vikings31c40,000$12,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,60011445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Cowboys68c39,500$26,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,86030743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Cowboys69c30,163$20,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,812.4116955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Vikings31c30,000$9,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,70013654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Vikings32c29,894$9,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,327.7513142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Cowboys34c28,196$9,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,500.537736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Cowboys31c27,481$8,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,409.6620026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a00…2296backed Cowboys34c26,364$8,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,995.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Cowboys2c24,800$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.0747348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Vikings30c23,992$7,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,794.7319553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5eb7…05f6backed Cowboys55c22,317$12,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,241.310144.6%45 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cowboys29c21,073$6,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,160.2850242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Cowboys75c20,000$14,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,95511252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Cowboys65c19,503$12,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,583.757951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67f9…d241backed Vikings20c19,426$3,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,610.68219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-42%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Cowboys69c19,320$13,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,395.297248.6%35 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00be…5acabacked Cowboys68c18,700$12,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,715.994650%23 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Cowboys68c17,591$12,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,027.511544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Cowboys68c16,659$11,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,363.254837.5%18 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Cowboys69c16,000$10,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,98024056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc62a…c2c7backed Cowboys68c16,000$10,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,88040%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Cowboys69c15,889$10,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,923.6931854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cowboys68c14,545$9,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,891.991,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cowboys71c14,485$10,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,265.4775852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cowboys68c13,000$8,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,88039447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Cowboys68c12,999$8,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,789.316639.4%26 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked Vikings32c12,477$4,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,432.091464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Cowboys65c11,530$7,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,535.4386547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cowboys69c11,476$7,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,943.627348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Cowboys60c10,812$6,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,487.31752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Vikings31c10,518$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,217.635648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Cowboys65c10,365$6,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,737.4310462.5%65 W · 39 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+45.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3d7…194dbacked Cowboys31c10,095$3,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,105.13616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb433…7705backed Vikings29c10,015$2,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,060.641723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Vikings31c10,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,900.0324652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Cowboys69c10,000$6,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,8501741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-29.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Vikings31c10,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,899.9716036.3%58 W · 102 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9210…a5f0backed Cowboys69c9,942$6,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,895.23850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cowboys20c9,414$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.631543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Cowboys70c9,250$6,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,515.5927644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Vikings35c9,108$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,908.112556%14 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+29.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Cowboys70c8,729$6,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,096.6547738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Cowboys69c7,978$5,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,504.976540%26 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Cowboys65c7,589$4,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,936.97616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick54cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Cowboys69c7,523$5,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,190.8821254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe7…68f3backed Cowboys70c7,438$5,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1802060%12 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Vikings30c7,392$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,172.1923937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Vikings27c6,170$1,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.3964747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Vikings24c6,157$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,669.0120757.5%119 W · 88 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Vikings50c6,140$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,079.9816254.9%89 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b8c…abbabacked Vikings32c6,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0807153.5%38 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Cowboys69c6,000$4,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1402458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Cowboys72c6,000$4,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,31213435.8%48 W · 86 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Vikings69c5,931$4,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,865.723244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Vikings23c5,720$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,403.835345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cowboys69c5,347$3,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,669.961,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Cowboys77c5,208$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0007255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x490e…73adbacked Vikings68c5,079$3,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,625.91241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0af5…2470backed Vikings31c5,000$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,450944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79f0…964ebacked Cowboys80c5,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Cowboys15c4,910$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.6319235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f6…48f3backed Cowboys69c4,720$3,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2744146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Cowboys63c4,357$2,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,744.974671.7%33 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5f8…ac7bbacked Vikings25c4,069$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,060.398447.6%40 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Vikings60c4,018$2,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.336965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4afd…4d18backed Vikings20c3,868$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,094.363339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe529…245dbacked Vikings52c3,822$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,822.14475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x069c…3d49backed Vikings30c3,646$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,546.31931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Cowboys68c3,500$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,38026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Cowboys70c3,500$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,449.9920646.1%95 W · 111 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x024a…decbbacked Cowboys70c3,494$2,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,435.766549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…837dbacked Cowboys56c3,388$1,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,903.457147.9%34 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd40…73a2backed Vikings32c3,128$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,126.986540%26 W · 39 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+40.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb924…0886backed Vikings37c3,100$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,948.0915132.5%49 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Vikings27c3,040$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,218.7911142.3%47 W · 64 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d9…ca67backed Vikings32c3,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0403548.6%17 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+10.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Cowboys69c3,000$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0707558.7%44 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Cowboys69c3,000$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0705547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x11b5…0d05backed Vikings75c3,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…9b33backed Vikings28c3,000$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,164.993839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Vikings73c2,921$2,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.772055%11 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked Cowboys69c2,899$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002955.2%16 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Vikings31c2,852$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,968.057534.7%26 W · 49 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.