NFL · resolved market
Vikings vs. Cowboys: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x209efb4fe826a81888f303de75729a3f84cd5519dabe207fa2ea2aa475795e38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Under | 54c | 5,426$2,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,930.09 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 53c | 4,149$2,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.94 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…c59cbacked Over | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Over | 46c | 2,100$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.5 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 1,962$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.27 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 54c | 1,060$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.5 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 527.27$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Under | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 54c | 364.29$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.71 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 287.12$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.15 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 46c | 124.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Under | 53c | 86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 56.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…37c1backed Under | 52c | 51.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…cfe5backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03fc…a8e6backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Under | 54c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Over | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…2894backed Over | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1760…c4edbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 54c | 32.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Over | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed Over | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vikings vs. Cowboys: O/U 48.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)Vikings won
- Vikings vs. CowboysVikings won
- Vikings vs. Cowboys: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Vikings vs. Cowboys: 1H O/U 24.5Over won
- Vikings vs. Cowboys: 1H O/U 25.5Over won
- Vikings vs. Cowboys: O/U 46.5Over won
- Vikings vs. Cowboys: O/U 47.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.