NFL · resolved market
Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x295c4bbff48b5710289de41bfe6e496d81ee7ae6730d31a27df5b15bdce7dfdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vikingsof Cowboys, Vikings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Cowboys | 40c | 12,378$4,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,909.49 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Vikings | 61c | 6,929$4,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,708.12 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Vikings | 60c | 6,095$3,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,437.25 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Cowboys | 39c | 4,660$1,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,817 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Vikings | 61c | 2,182$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.25 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cowboys | 51c | 1,851$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.46 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Vikings | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Cowboys | 39c | 900$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Vikings | 50c | 880$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.72 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Vikings | 61c | 817$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.63 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Vikings | 50c | 801$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.83 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cowboys | 39c | 754.75$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.94 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Cowboys | 43c | 690.23$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…e0edbacked Vikings | 47c | 633.86$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.86 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Cowboys | 40c | 587.5$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Vikings | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Vikings | 62c | 422.58$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.58 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Vikings | 44c | 419.94$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.65 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Vikings | 62c | 405.52$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.52 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Vikings | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Vikings | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Vikings | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked Cowboys | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Vikings | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5344…c194backed Vikings | 45c | 245.24$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.24 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Vikings | 62c | 234$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Vikings | 51c | 215$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.58 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03fc…a8e6backed Cowboys | 39c | 205.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Cowboys | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 120 | 31.7%38 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Vikings | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Cowboys | 60c | 185.02$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.01 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Vikings | 60c | 175$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Cowboys | 43c | 171$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa14e…f856backed Vikings | 63c | 169.84$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cowboys | 47c | 166$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Vikings | 58c | 155$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Vikings | 79c | 126.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Vikings | 78c | 125$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Vikings | 61c | 119$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Vikings | 56c | 112.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…73e7backed Cowboys | 41c | 109.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Cowboys | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…8db6backed Vikings | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 8cpaid | +242.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Vikings | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…9f0ebacked Cowboys | 32c | 92.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Vikings | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…56aebacked Vikings | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Vikings | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Vikings | 62c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed Cowboys | 38c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Vikings | 62c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Cowboys | 38c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Vikings | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e71…8913backed Cowboys | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6127backed Vikings | 57c | 43.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Cowboys | 54c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Cowboys | 38c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Cowboys | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Vikings | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…d0c8backed Vikings | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Cowboys | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…c6ecbacked Cowboys | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…d2d3backed Vikings | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Cowboys | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Vikings | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cowboys | 37c | 31.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Cowboys | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Cowboys | 42c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Cowboys | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Cowboys | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…bd5cbacked Cowboys | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cowboys | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…3428backed Vikings | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)Vikings won
- Vikings vs. CowboysVikings won
- Vikings vs. Cowboys: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Vikings vs. Cowboys: 1H O/U 24.5Over won
- Vikings vs. Cowboys: 1H O/U 25.5Over won
- Vikings vs. Cowboys: O/U 46.5Over won
- Vikings vs. Cowboys: O/U 47.5Over won
- Vikings vs. Cowboys: O/U 48.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.