TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1137…d2d3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: NFL, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 53 out of 100; worst NHL at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sabres vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$168.18
Stars vs. Wildbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.19
Penguins vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+81.8%+$9
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+69.5%+$13.9
Blackhawks vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Canucks vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+75.4%+$15.09
Stars vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Predators vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+75.4%+$15.09
Avalanche vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+66.7%+$13.33
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)backed Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Blues vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Jets vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+42.9%+$8.57
Wild vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+92.3%+$18.46
Spread: Bruins (-1.5)backed Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+222.6%+$44.52
Predators vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+31.6%+$15.79
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Blue Jackets vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 17 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Jaguars vs. Coltsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+49.3%+$9.85
Steelers vs. Brownsbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Texans vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Lions vs. Vikingsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Spread: 49ers (-6.5)backed Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Ravens (-3.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+96.1%+$19.22
Spread: Lions (-7.5)backed Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+75.4%+$15.09
Eagles vs. Commandersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+31.6%+$9.47
Dolphins vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+58.7%+$11.75
Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)backed Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+61.3%+$12.26
Spread: Packers (-7.5)backed Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+78.6%+$34.15
Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)backed Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+96.1%+$21.32
Spread: LAR (-10.5)backed Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+89.9%+$13.67
All 14 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.7
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+124.9%+$53.31
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+85.2%+$17.04
Hawks vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Celtics (-9.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+100%+$10
All 5 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+101.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+101.2%+$25.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Savannah: Kilian Feldbausch vs Jack Kennedybacked Jack Kennedy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+52.7%+$6.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$15.43
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.