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NFL · resolved market

Spread: 49ers (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
49ersof 49ers, Colts
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,515,072
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,657,194

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,515,072 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4259…936fbacked 49ers43c1,134,351$487,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646,579.986248.4%30 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Colts57c704,368$401,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,489.9517041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Colts57c409,267$233,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233,316.4611145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Colts55c105,006$57,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,855.3186547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed 49ers44c49,675$21,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,906.6727454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Colts57c34,801$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0006459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked 49ers46c25,915$11,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,921.8153348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Colts57c20,000$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,40011146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked 49ers42c18,440$7,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,695.22965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed 49ers46c14,444$6,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,794.9747348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 49ers43c13,115$5,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,447.621,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed 49ers43c10,000$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,699.995850%29 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked 49ers44c9,169$4,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,134.6419152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 49ers59c8,102$4,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,319.1650242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Colts57c7,000$3,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,989.9711750.4%59 W · 58 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Colts58c5,700$3,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30620661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed 49ers44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80019651.5%101 W · 95 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed 49ers43c4,642$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,645.854546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Colts38c4,627$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.8673651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked 49ers42c3,740$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,170.952740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed 49ers65c3,397$2,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.8464747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3f9…2aa8backed 49ers53c3,294$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,544.4529059.7%173 W · 117 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked 49ers43c3,000$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,71015252.6%80 W · 72 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Colts58c3,000$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.993661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Colts57c2,936$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.6154451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba69…8e9dbacked Colts58c2,680$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,554.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e4…00cdbacked Colts58c2,586$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked 49ers41c2,452$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,446.882360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 49ers41c2,399$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.3375852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8e…b232backed Colts55c2,200$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2104641.3%19 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Colts44c2,060$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.2816955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed 49ers43c2,035$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.820039.5%79 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed 49ers43c2,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1407152.1%37 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83c1…32f7backed 49ers42c1,853$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.894940.8%20 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Colts52c1,825$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.155152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Colts56c1,790$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7a0…fba4backed Colts59c1,687$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.281266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed 49ers45c1,477$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.6717547.4%83 W · 92 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Colts58c1,293$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7508540%34 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Colts43c1,199$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.482412.5%3 W · 21 L-4.7wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-72.5%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Colts49c1,060$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.648650%43 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Colts57c1,003$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.714348.8%21 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Colts53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53039242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac0…89e4backed 49ers73c964.38$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.381275%9 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+31.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Colts56c929.65$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.2565048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Colts58c862.07$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007361.6%45 W · 28 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb2c3…4d61backed 49ers43c808.42$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.82236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+11.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Colts45c778.43$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.4910537.1%39 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Colts59c677.97$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40016648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed 49ers44c666$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.963948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 49ers42c661.33$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.241,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Colts54c652.17$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.1719459.3%115 W · 79 L+15.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c58…8c00backed 49ers44c564.95$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.372157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Colts57c561.4$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3205345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Colts59c508.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008145.7%37 W · 44 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked 49ers68c506$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.548847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Colts49c494$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.0619439.2%76 W · 118 L-11.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c77…6282backed Colts58c474.14$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2753435.3%12 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-26.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Colts54c444.44$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2404951%25 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed 49ers45c444.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.4420443.6%89 W · 115 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Colts55c439$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.2815746.5%73 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35de…b39abacked 49ers43c425.58$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.5820143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked 49ers60c404.66$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.861643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed 49ers78c400$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8819436.6%71 W · 123 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5387…c91ebacked Colts40c399.97$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.892540%10 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed 49ers73c393$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.7920757.5%119 W · 88 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b8c…e115backed 49ers45c367.21$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.215149%25 W · 26 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed 49ers42c367$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.8626649.6%132 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Colts53c366.41$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.0134652.9%183 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed 49ers44c358$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.484143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed 49ers56c355.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.946055%33 W · 27 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe21a…88edbacked 49ers48c350$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1813151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked 49ers43c350$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2006651.5%34 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Colts58c344.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005149%25 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked 49ers44c340.91$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.9113752.6%72 W · 65 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Colts58c334.66$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.114154.6%77 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eb1…0812backed Colts57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1713831.6%12 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Colts48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1443652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Colts50c290.91$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.292733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xffb2…3bb5backed Colts60c288.9$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.731650%8 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1306…edf8backed 49ers62c285.48$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.481533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-42.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed 49ers44c281.8$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.9536341.9%152 W · 211 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6941…efd5backed Colts56c268.57$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15013253%70 W · 62 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7203…c123backed Colts18c250$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462035%7 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked 49ers43c250$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.57456.8%42 W · 32 L+6.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b8c…abbabacked Colts58c238$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.047153.5%38 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e7…9a03backed 49ers43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.561154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37a7…a42bbacked 49ers43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.566243.5%27 W · 35 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Colts56c227.8$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3353253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd65…fcfabacked 49ers44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.275832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12c3…a470backed 49ers46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.391833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4138…6a24backed 49ers75c215$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.755265.4%34 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a52…9ad6backed Colts54c202.47$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105558.2%32 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66fe…e123backed 49ers42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11610454.8%57 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Colts25c200$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494944.9%22 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked 49ers42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11631540.6%128 W · 187 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed 49ers51c196.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.8514355.2%79 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa903…3968backed Colts55c188.85$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Colts31c187.58$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.157052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed 49ers57c177.09$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.862040%8 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.