NFL · resolved market
49ers vs. Colts: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bd4f2098ba752951d24c5fe37b344d6fce359a74c617ff6541732e6443ed026
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof 49ers, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97b9…5455backed 49ers | 52c | 574.67$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.67 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked 49ers | 62c | 572.52$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.56 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Colts | 38c | 431.75$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.75 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Colts | 38c | 264.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…a470backed Colts | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Colts | 37c | 245$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Colts | 38c | 221.77$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked 49ers | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Colts | 38c | 199.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed 49ers | 62c | 189.62$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Colts | 37c | 153$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Colts | 36c | 145$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Colts | 37c | 142$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Colts | 48c | 135.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Colts | 37c | 126$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked 49ers | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Colts | 37c | 89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa038…341dbacked Colts | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed 49ers | 63c | 81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed 49ers | 63c | 76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Colts | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Colts | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Colts | 37c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Colts | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…15adbacked 49ers | 63c | 53.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked 49ers | 64c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Colts | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Colts | 37c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed 49ers | 63c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Colts | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Colts | 36c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked 49ers | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Colts | 47c | 45.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…a809backed 49ers | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked 49ers | 63c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed 49ers | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Colts | 38c | 40.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Colts | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Colts | 37c | 39.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked 49ers | 63c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed 49ers | 63c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed 49ers | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed 49ers | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Colts | 36c | 33.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed 49ers | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed 49ers | 63c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed 49ers | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed 49ers | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed 49ers | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…c5cdbacked 49ers | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…7b2ebacked 49ers | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91a2…cc98backed 49ers | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked 49ers | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked 49ers | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed 49ers | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…6c16backed 49ers | 65c | 22.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed 49ers | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed 49ers | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed 49ers | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…3b16backed 49ers | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…a4aabacked 49ers | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed 49ers | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked 49ers | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked 49ers | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked 49ers | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked 49ers | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…581ebacked 49ers | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed 49ers | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed 49ers | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked 49ers | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed 49ers | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked 49ers | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 49ers vs. Colts: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-2.5)49ers won
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-3.5)49ers won
- 49ers vs. Colts49ers won
- 49ers vs. Colts: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Colts: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: 49ers (-4.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-5.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-6.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.