NFL · resolved market
49ers vs. Colts: 1H O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e812161c609f6c8699950bc4732f3c7d493f79d14d4cbcbf4960495cdadab71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Under | 57c | 706.27$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…3a1abacked Under | 57c | 576.11$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 537.5$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.46 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 43c | 448.78$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.81 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 54c | 157$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Under | 53c | 147$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 53c | 113$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 47c | 106.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 55c | 84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Under | 56c | 73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Under | 55c | 72.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 54c | 66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Under | 53c | 63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Under | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…cd53backed Under | 56c | 53.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 54c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Over | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Under | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed Over | 47c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Over | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…d0c8backed Under | 56c | 44.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 54c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…9fcabacked Over | 47c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…0c60backed Over | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Over | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Over | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Under | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Over | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…7b2ebacked Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…e842backed Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…517abacked Over | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed Over | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Over | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 49ers vs. Colts: 1H O/U 23.5this page
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-2.5)49ers won
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-3.5)49ers won
- 49ers vs. Colts49ers won
- 49ers vs. Colts: 1H Moneyline49ers won
- 49ers vs. Colts: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: 49ers (-4.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-5.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-6.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.