Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e2d93203f0e723d43b5028749d3cd22a81767cb9f293bba675b9eaa5689affb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 71c | 500.63$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.47 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 75c | 474.67$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.59 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed No | 47c | 396.45$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.83 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceac…c462backed No | 25c | 389.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 72c | 375.06$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.04 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 350.8$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 344.09$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 22c | 342.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 325.79$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.21 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 22c | 304.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 281$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 223.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 43c | 200.66$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 166.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 60c | 163.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 58c | 152.37$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 51c | 147.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 42c | 144.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…3b9bbacked Yes | 76c | 144.04$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 56c | 144.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 34c | 140$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 39c | 139.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 63c | 135.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 41c | 124.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 59c | 124.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 120.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 120.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 60c | 117.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 114.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 47c | 107.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 41c | 107$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 17c | 101.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 57c | 99.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 54c | 93.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 51c | 86.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 58c | 84.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 38c | 84.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 40c | 81.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 55c | 74.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x003a…485cbacked Yes | 68c | 71.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 61c | 71.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 69.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 42c | 67.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 43c | 63.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 47c | 62.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 41c | 62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…66d7backed Yes | 59c | 60.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 35c | 57.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 55.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 62c | 55.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 28c | 52.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb910…11e1backed Yes | 67c | 52.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4320…4a44backed Yes | 64c | 50.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…d2d3backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa162…b0ffbacked Yes | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc501…d0f1backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 29c | 49.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 49.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 50c | 48.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 53c | 48.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 45c | 44.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 46c | 42.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 28c | 41.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 61c | 40.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 63c | 39.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 39c | 38.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 60c | 37.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 41c | 37.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…9a38backed No | 46c | 37.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…0ce8backed Yes | 54c | 37.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 57c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 36c | 36.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked No | 42c | 35.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 35.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 57c | 35.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…6c2abacked Yes | 47c | 34.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 34.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 48c | 33.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 42c | 33.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 40c | 32.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 65c | 30.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 46c | 30.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed Yes | 66c | 30.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…5f37backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.