Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f3be13c3b9ea76d8e53967ccb1fffc3edd9377659e9e72dcf17cca991532395
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 22c | 462.34$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 338$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.58 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 60c | 337.81$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.12 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 274$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 70c | 216.9$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 215.84$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…0ce8backed Yes | 15c | 169.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 167.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 24c | 150.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 21c | 136.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 41c | 135.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 126.58$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 10c | 126$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 40c | 111.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 13c | 107$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 106.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 15c | 105.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 70c | 102.52$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 29c | 101.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 61c | 93.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 92.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 70c | 89.2$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 23c | 84.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 19c | 80.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 78.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 38c | 72.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 30c | 67.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 74c | 53.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 25c | 50.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 70c | 48.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 63c | 47.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 63c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 34c | 41.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 35c | 39.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 35.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 40c | 32.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…137abacked Yes | 35c | 31.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 26.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 62c | 24.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 46c | 22.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.