Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9305d04a0fa7fe78a9c507fb9a6e3756f4c1bd2d9af4421fec308654b30eed76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 26c | 703.79$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.18 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 77c | 419.14$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.14 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 25c | 390.22$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 385.22$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 360.47$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.74 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 321.28$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b1…610abacked Yes | 24c | 280.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 11c | 263.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 34c | 250.45$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 17c | 213.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 24c | 209$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 26c | 178.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 18c | 172.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…808ebacked Yes | 31c | 169.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 31c | 167.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 14c | 162.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 27c | 143.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 68c | 139.66$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 138.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 41c | 135.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 134.63$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 65c | 134.36$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 132.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 124.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 20c | 122.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 118.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 28c | 117.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 73c | 114$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 110.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 24c | 108.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 38c | 106.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 61c | 105.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 17c | 90.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed Yes | 31c | 84.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 28c | 80.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 74c | 67.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 62.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 77c | 59.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…da13backed Yes | 27c | 55.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 25c | 55.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…6a11backed Yes | 27c | 52.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 74c | 51.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…6c2abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 62c | 46.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 65c | 46.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 60c | 45.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…e309backed Yes | 34c | 44.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 40c | 40.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 54c | 32.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 31.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 61c | 29.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…9a38backed Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 27.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 57c | 26.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 63c | 25.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 76c | 25.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.