TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Magic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Knicks, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,260,265
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,394,001

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,260,265 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82a1…e03abacked Magic37c1,323,071$495,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495,7435952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Knicks63c1,164,311$730,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433,755.8815443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc31d…4ebebacked Knicks62c700,000$436,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263,999.992552%13 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Knicks64c445,000$282,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162,204.9112147.9%58 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Magic36c351,079$127,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127,922.9787144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…1795backed Magic36c310,000$110,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110,199.933839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Knicks62c225,000$139,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85,5006352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Magic38c198,192$74,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,958.027745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Magic38c148,742$56,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,521.8426753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Magic35c121,109$42,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,336.812,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18d1…dbcbbacked Magic37c108,196$40,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,0009641.7%40 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Magic36c104,724$38,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,078.5427251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed72…b8b0backed Magic37c91,505$33,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,856.832245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Knicks64c59,998$38,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,695.851,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Magic3c59,752$1,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,851.3218518.4%34 W · 151 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Knicks63c58,472$36,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,634.7824650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Knicks74c54,383$40,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,169.6116846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Knicks66c53,885$35,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,481.081,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Knicks64c50,000$31,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,099.9951350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Knicks64c43,840$28,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,782.421450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Magic37c43,840$16,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,220.817861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Knicks63c41,924$26,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,430.0316942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Magic36c41,076$14,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,832.332,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Knicks63c40,005$25,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,774.0696447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Knicks64c40,000$25,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,40038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Magic35c39,120$13,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,692.154,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Knicks64c30,928$19,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,021.8955346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdec0…c38abacked Magic32c30,832$9,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,791.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Magic38c30,000$11,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,299.994841.7%20 W · 28 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Magic36c30,000$10,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,799.9818045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Knicks64c30,000$19,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,799.9831445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Knicks65c26,590$17,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,175.171,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2838…fdd3backed Magic36c24,518$8,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,826.574247.6%20 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Knicks62c22,581$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,580.641,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b40…d85ebacked Magic10c21,686$2,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,088.155832.8%19 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa89e…fb60backed Magic49c21,255$10,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,451.85379.2%42 W · 11 L+6.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Knicks64c20,100$12,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,2363342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Knicks64c20,000$12,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,272.991,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Knicks63c20,000$12,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,433.3359653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Magic35c20,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,999.9327424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Knicks65c19,231$12,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,730.7776746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Knicks63c18,730$11,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,930.117658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1d1…99a2backed Magic15c17,453$2,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,631.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Magic37c16,216$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0005947.5%28 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Knicks63c13,850$8,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,124.547751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x468e…3e25backed Magic33c13,804$4,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,555.3650%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Magic7c11,645$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.751,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf982…915abacked Magic36c11,200$4,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,032560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Knicks64c11,000$7,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9605455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Knicks72c10,646$7,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,011.111,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Knicks53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7008343.4%36 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Knicks64c10,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,60023245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Magic35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50020551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a4e…53a2backed Magic1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Knicks64c9,969$6,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,588.9861851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe427…4c44backed Knicks64c9,827$6,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,537.568951.7%46 W · 43 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Knicks63c9,796$6,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,642.34,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Magic22c9,678$2,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,110.5818345.9%84 W · 99 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Magic2c9,494$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.2164517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Knicks65c9,195$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,194.6817441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Knicks62c9,082$5,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,436.8338649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Magic44c9,049$3,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,981.3511750.4%59 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Magic6c8,981$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.581,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Knicks58c8,656$5,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,614.822,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Knicks62c8,652$5,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,287.7619958.3%116 W · 83 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Knicks64c8,612$5,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,100.485347.2%25 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d6…28bfbacked Magic36c8,600$3,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,096520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-60.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Knicks61c8,548$5,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,343.483,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked Knicks62c8,048$5,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,038.554252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Knicks64c8,000$5,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,88069049.4%341 W · 349 L-30.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Magic28c8,000$2,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,207.9913625.7%35 W · 101 L+0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54fd…ae61backed Knicks63c7,937$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,936.511650%8 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Knicks64c7,107$4,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,565.8444459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Knicks64c7,029$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,528.541,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x042f…764dbacked Knicks65c6,700$4,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3458100%8 W · 0 L+3.7wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+94.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Knicks78c6,653$5,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.8514856.1%83 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d8…9e6cbacked Knicks65c6,500$4,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,275944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f47…febfbacked Knicks65c6,400$4,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,240666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+57.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4328…16f3backed Magic36c6,200$2,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic13c6,078$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.448,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8b…77d4backed Magic34c6,007$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,046.3511244.6%50 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Knicks64c6,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,16014945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fc…dd38backed Knicks65c6,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Magic37c5,981$2,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,212.831,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5061…1b03backed Knicks56c5,965$3,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,624.616540%66 W · 99 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Magic35c5,555$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,944.2536741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccea…a8ebbacked Magic35c5,380$1,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,88323348.1%112 W · 121 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a22…c3b5backed Magic33c5,322$1,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,757.7716130.4%49 W · 112 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17c1…a606backed Knicks64c5,100$3,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,836.112352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b4f…37b8backed Knicks65c5,043$3,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,765.171675%12 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Knicks63c5,040$3,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,864.858951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbba…f349backed Magic37c5,036$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-46.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Knicks62c5,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9005100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeda2…3fa5backed Magic35c5,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.97650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+62.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Magic29c4,963$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.81,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6e8…310ebacked Knicks63c4,898$3,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,812.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf4…8860backed Magic29c4,870$1,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.53357.6%19 W · 14 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+46.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Knicks66c4,851$3,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.2666853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Knicks64c4,755$3,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,711.8121446.7%100 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Magic36c4,714$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697.1924048.3%116 W · 124 L-13.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.