NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf22e9f9d7ce63e1559e2a1e5632832c06749abf7427460c12095c374a4dcf255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 16,665$7,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,706.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 15,859$7,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,273.33 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10aa…95fcbacked Under | 52c | 9,615$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Under | 53c | 6,634$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 310 | 44.8%139 W · 171 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe7…baa9backed Under | 52c | 5,769$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e79…29a7backed Under | 52c | 4,808$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Under | 53c | 2,642$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…c2ffbacked Under | 52c | 2,000$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 52c | 865.38$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 29c | 221.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…3ef7backed Over | 71c | 221.87$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Over | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 156 | 56.4%88 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…94b4backed Under | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9527…928dbacked Over | 50c | 118.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 98.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…9218backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 66c | 75.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Under | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…3551backed Over | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…eb14backed Under | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 225.5this page
- Knicks vs. MagicKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 223.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.