TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Colts vs. Jaguars

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jaguarsof Colts, Jaguars
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,516,639
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,584,074

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,516,639 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Colts55c694,151$383,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383,316.3717041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Jaguars46c289,026$134,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154,910.7730043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Jaguars44c191,617$83,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107,805.639359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Jaguars44c168,542$74,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94,501.1186547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Jaguars43c100,000$43,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,999.9511445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Colts54c100,000$54,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,999.914955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Colts56c99,000$55,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,44053253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Colts55c97,500$54,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,999.8131240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Jaguars46c87,000$40,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,98011168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Jaguars45c55,555$24,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,666.364634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Colts3c54,409$1,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,642.079245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Jaguars74c54,398$39,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,399.213070%21 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Jaguars43c40,000$17,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,8005453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Colts24c39,571$9,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,341.0450242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdda0…9b66backed Colts55c39,486$21,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,717.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Jaguars44c36,498$16,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,309.5430743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Jaguars43c35,000$15,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,949.972245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Colts10c27,664$2,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,724.931543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Colts55c26,124$14,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,368.244652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Jaguars46c25,000$11,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,499.913843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed Jaguars44c22,727$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,727.275957.6%34 W · 25 L+7.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jaguars46c22,555$10,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,201.351,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Colts57c22,265$12,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,69118650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c81…fce3backed Jaguars64c19,421$12,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,067.675250%26 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Colts18c17,453$3,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,213.7368446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Colts3c16,974$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.298622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Colts15c16,679$2,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,581.5419235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Colts1c16,590$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.933328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7c…357dbacked Jaguars58c16,117$9,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,754.411662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Jaguars44c15,909$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,909.096965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Colts29c15,838$4,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,598.8111643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28b1…5a3fbacked Colts57c15,120$8,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,618.179359.1%55 W · 38 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02fb…0a53backed Jaguars44c14,392$6,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,058.33875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+28.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9146…5f30backed Colts57c14,200$8,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0942528%7 W · 18 L-4.9wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-47.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Colts54c14,000$7,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,539.992740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc374…46f4backed Colts54c14,000$7,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,559.89742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x240c…bd0dbacked Jaguars45c14,000$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,699.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Colts56c11,428$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,399.684365.1%28 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Colts57c11,416$6,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,503.0147348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0b1…faebbacked Colts18c10,795$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.097737.7%29 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Jaguars47c10,708$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,708.4418140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Jaguars46c10,300$4,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,602.9228447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Jaguars43c10,000$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7007657.9%44 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+134.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Colts56c10,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,60011649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f1a…6dc0backed Jaguars44c10,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,6007051.4%36 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…74c8backed Jaguars45c9,818$4,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,400560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+97.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Colts53c9,760$5,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,172.9716226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Colts2c9,253$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.841486.8%10 W · 138 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+296.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Jaguars47c9,225$4,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,889.266459.4%38 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Jaguars58c9,072$5,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,810.3116955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Jaguars45c8,845$3,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,86512744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Colts57c8,782$5,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,005.7453348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Colts57c8,771$4,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.4713560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21a4…7f84backed Colts54c8,215$4,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,436.1450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x401a…9e59backed Jaguars46c8,015$3,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,328.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb6…3156backed Colts53c7,800$4,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,13410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jaguars43c7,000$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,99083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Jaguars45c6,500$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5608351.8%43 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7990…c870backed Jaguars47c6,383$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,382.988953.9%48 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Colts22c6,152$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.3436246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74db…1f4bbacked Jaguars46c6,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,240425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-45.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Colts56c6,000$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3608551.8%44 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Jaguars46c6,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,24010648.1%51 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Colts9c5,634$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.046240.3%25 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Colts54c5,202$2,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,802.431854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Jaguars45c5,010$2,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,755.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Colts56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Colts46c4,885$2,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232.398532.9%28 W · 57 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8a4…75c1backed Colts13c4,752$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59518658.1%108 W · 78 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Jaguars45c4,635$2,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,569.742250%11 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Colts14c4,315$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.7413435.8%48 W · 86 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Jaguars47c4,255$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.3214252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00e9…cd05backed Colts54c4,102$2,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,215.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f6…6f0abacked Colts55c4,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick46cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fb7…082dbacked Colts55c3,836$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.796338.1%24 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41c1…2894backed Colts1c3,791$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1d…43c9backed Jaguars46c3,787$1,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,044.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6530…b179backed Colts54c3,720$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,008.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c05…cf6cbacked Jaguars45c3,714$1,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,042.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f27…ddcfbacked Colts54c3,705$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.730%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x290b…4ba6backed Jaguars46c3,613$1,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,951.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb461…76cfbacked Jaguars46c3,590$1,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,938.61241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a6…1dccbacked Colts55c3,590$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jaguars47c3,580$1,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.7473651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Colts1c3,554$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.224311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Colts54c3,440$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.620661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Colts0c3,300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5980%0 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bf2…3ca4backed Jaguars46c3,139$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,695.06475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+65.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Jaguars46c3,112$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680.614257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+29%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jaguars64c3,067$1,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.5527348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4840…feffbacked Colts54c3,030$1,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,636.2366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc97…58a6backed Jaguars50c2,949$1,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.681233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf198…2159backed Colts54c2,892$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Colts53c2,830$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005939%23 W · 36 L-9.4wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-34.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe96a…1639backed Jaguars46c2,774$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Colts56c2,715$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,514.2911544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bbf…6867backed Colts54c2,587$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.98520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-72.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4427…88f2backed Jaguars46c2,556$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.24475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca5c…d316backed Jaguars46c2,523$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.42837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Colts57c2,500$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42514641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.