NFL · resolved market
Spread: Colts (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e4e84898380015e8acfc7846e181268888e85c53c3ad113aba818da01ab0768
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jaguarsof Colts, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $845,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $831,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $845,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jaguars | 47c | 259,138$122,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136,364.59 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Jaguars | 49c | 250,000$122,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127,500 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Colts | 53c | 109,916$58,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,255.58 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed Colts | 51c | 80,000$40,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,800 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Colts | 52c | 52,500$27,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,299.82 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Colts | 53c | 19,940$10,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,567.6 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Jaguars | 46c | 13,296$6,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,180.05 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +10.2wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Colts | 54c | 12,963$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Colts | 53c | 9,525$5,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,048.23 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jaguars | 48c | 8,000$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,160 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jaguars | 49c | 5,908$2,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,017.53 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Colts | 53c | 1,604$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.12 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Jaguars | 49c | 1,021$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.71 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Colts | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Colts | 53c | 905.81$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.08 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jaguars | 48c | 655.21$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.51 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Colts | 54c | 511$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.94 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Jaguars | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Jaguars | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Colts | 53c | 289$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.17 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Colts | 55c | 240$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Colts | 53c | 227$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.84 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Jaguars | 51c | 225.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.89 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Colts | 51c | 220$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c24dbacked Colts | 54c | 216.67$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jaguars | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.9 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Colts | 50c | 215$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jaguars | 50c | 211.54$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.83 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Jaguars | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.75 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Jaguars | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Jaguars | 47c | 202.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.13 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Jaguars | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Colts | 51c | 163.74$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.51 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -9.5wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x02ba…2652backed Jaguars | 47c | 122.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Jaguars | 46c | 114$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Colts | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 82 | 74.4%61 W · 21 L | +8.6wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Colts | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Colts | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Colts | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked Jaguars | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Jaguars | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Jaguars | 49c | 97.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef67…7b2dbacked Colts | 51c | 92.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Colts | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fadabacked Jaguars | 50c | 84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Colts | 54c | 81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Colts | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…6ea7backed Colts | 54c | 53.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Jaguars | 48c | 52.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…29c2backed Colts | 53c | 49.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46a…e9dbbacked Jaguars | 49c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…d1cabacked Jaguars | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked Jaguars | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Jaguars | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7848…5f80backed Jaguars | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Colts | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Colts | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ba0bbacked Jaguars | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Colts | 50c | 28.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…2a57backed Jaguars | 50c | 27.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Colts | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…f427backed Colts | 52c | 24.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Colts | 49c | 20.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colts (-1.5)this page
- Colts vs. JaguarsJaguars won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: 1H MoneylineJaguars won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: 1H O/U 24.5Over won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5Over won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5Over won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Over won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 48.5Over won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Colts (-2.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.