NFL · resolved market
Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42eee700fc083d386f7944281c844788747874fbb23d3c89dd97f28c9e1883d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 64,773$32,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,386.72 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 50c | 40,000$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Over | 50c | 8,122$4,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,061.2 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddb…91aabacked Under | 50c | 5,662$2,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,828.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 3,125$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.2 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 50c | 2,870$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.2 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 51c | 2,783$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.17 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 50c | 2,400$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…4e7cbacked Under | 50c | 1,904$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…16f9backed Under | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 858.76$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.07 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Under | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 612$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.12 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c3…3242backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Under | 52c | 209$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Under | 12c | 99.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Over | 52c | 95.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Over | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 68c | 65.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5f6fbacked Under | 55c | 54.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…1dbebacked Over | 52c | 47.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 50c | 45.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e9…9c03backed Over | 50c | 43.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 50c | 28.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5this page
- Colts vs. JaguarsJaguars won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: 1H MoneylineJaguars won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: 1H O/U 24.5Over won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5Over won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Over won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 48.5Over won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Colts (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Colts (-2.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.