NFL · resolved market
Spread: Colts (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70726bbaee1aef2505e357100ef4ddaf709d99f7e7038eb495cee438436de36e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jaguarsof Colts, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $245,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $246,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jaguars | 49c | 122,736$60,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62,576.65 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Colts | 51c | 100,000$51,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,000 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Colts | 51c | 75,398$38,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,453.08 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Jaguars | 49c | 60,616$29,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,708.3 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…cca5backed Jaguars | 51c | 11,401$5,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,586.64 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Colts | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Colts | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Colts | 51c | 9,526$4,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,859.47 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0323…77e4backed Colts | 49c | 6,137$3,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,006.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x753b…3d0fbacked Colts | 49c | 5,345$2,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,618.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70d…ef69backed Colts | 49c | 5,144$2,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Jaguars | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58d7…7cf1backed Jaguars | 51c | 4,315$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.16 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jaguars | 49c | 4,305$2,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,195.25 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…4576backed Jaguars | 51c | 2,379$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c20…7d4fbacked Jaguars | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…a744backed Colts | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Jaguars | 52c | 1,924$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.79 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a81…aa82backed Colts | 49c | 1,470$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Jaguars | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Colts | 51c | 935$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.85 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Colts | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Jaguars | 51c | 588.43$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.43 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Jaguars | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jaguars | 49c | 467$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.17 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jaguars | 46c | 460$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.4 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Colts | 54c | 460$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.4 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Colts | 50c | 437.65$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Colts | 48c | 400.92$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.44 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Colts | 50c | 380.72$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.36 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +14.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Jaguars | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Jaguars | 50c | 370.72$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.36 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Jaguars | 73c | 356.75$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.54 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Colts | 49c | 350$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Jaguars | 54c | 347.44$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.03 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Jaguars | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Colts | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb457…b13abacked Colts | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Colts | 51c | 278$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.78 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Colts | 50c | 270$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.94 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jaguars | 49c | 227.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.82 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…bce0backed Jaguars | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Jaguars | 51c | 203.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Jaguars | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Jaguars | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Jaguars | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Jaguars | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…3b03backed Colts | 52c | 191.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Colts | 43c | 187$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Colts | 43c | 184$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Jaguars | 51c | 180$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Jaguars | 50c | 116$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jaguars | 50c | 114.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Jaguars | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Jaguars | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Jaguars | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Jaguars | 50c | 92.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…64cabacked Colts | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Colts | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Jaguars | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Colts | 49c | 39.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa19f…f745backed Jaguars | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…bf3bbacked Jaguars | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jaguars | 41c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Colts | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…db6abacked Jaguars | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Jaguars | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Colts | 50c | 21.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Jaguars | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Colts | 51c | 20.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Jaguars | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a30…532fbacked Colts | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…70e6backed Jaguars | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colts (-2.5)this page
- Colts vs. JaguarsJaguars won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: 1H MoneylineJaguars won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: 1H O/U 24.5Over won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 45.5Over won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5Over won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Over won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 48.5Over won
- Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Colts (-1.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.