TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$538,806
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$645,878

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $538,806 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x67bb…b6efbacked Spirit59c44,293$26,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,046.7476058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9750…263dbacked PARIVISION44c34,425$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,424.563036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Spirit58c27,000$15,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,659.9583652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed PARIVISION41c25,820$10,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,233.8123839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Spirit58c12,000$6,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,959.9735153.8%189 W · 162 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd604…ee57backed PARIVISION42c11,893$4,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,897.854731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed PARIVISION39c9,824$3,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,968.9524846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Spirit60c9,500$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,70037646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Spirit57c9,449$5,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,429.232,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bff…7074backed Spirit66c8,362$5,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,554.2714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-53.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb7b…ed88backed PARIVISION41c8,305$3,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,876.342860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Spirit57c8,000$4,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,539.9571645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked PARIVISION42c7,115$2,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,116.641040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed PARIVISION40c6,145$2,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,689.7875450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Spirit45c6,041$2,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,744.6339248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Spirit53c5,952$3,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,175.563,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Spirit46c5,726$2,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,612.082,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed PARIVISION42c5,700$2,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,302.3722448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed PARIVISION37c5,260$1,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,300.3322142.5%94 W · 127 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed PARIVISION41c5,170$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,050.296634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed PARIVISION44c5,159$2,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,889.9711240.2%45 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Spirit48c5,125$2,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,468.461,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked PARIVISION40c5,047$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,049.942,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Spirit48c4,681$2,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,227.211,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed PARIVISION45c4,443$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,443.4312449.2%61 W · 63 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Spirit56c4,384$2,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,468.913,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Spirit62c4,000$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,48016152.8%85 W · 76 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Spirit58c3,765$2,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,181.998050%40 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e0…c736backed PARIVISION56c3,575$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.9114362.9%90 W · 53 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Spirit58c3,409$1,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,977.2835850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed PARIVISION42c3,391$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,966.3485446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Spirit47c3,265$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536.5888746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed PARIVISION46c3,259$1,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,748.4946345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Spirit63c3,157$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975.0446149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9553…cfc7backed Spirit75c3,141$2,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,346.068458.3%49 W · 35 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f45…d3b8backed PARIVISION39c3,095$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,896.064261.9%26 W · 16 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+31.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe262…4097backed PARIVISION54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.994537.8%17 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed Spirit58c2,796$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62012649.2%62 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed PARIVISION40c2,719$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.393930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed PARIVISION38c2,654$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,654.1443933.7%148 W · 291 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90eb…db79backed PARIVISION42c2,637$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.232454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked PARIVISION42c2,400$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,39225555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed PARIVISION50c2,357$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.741,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked PARIVISION45c2,322$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.8822927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfae…8b06backed PARIVISION43c2,267$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,293.891844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed PARIVISION42c2,050$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.4811940.3%48 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked PARIVISION45c2,003$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.5128443.7%124 W · 160 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Spirit52c1,987$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.11,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Spirit56c1,872$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.6122761.7%140 W · 87 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed PARIVISION46c1,755$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.726549.1%130 W · 135 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5ed…9bb9backed Spirit59c1,714$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0072744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Spirit59c1,700$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.7178639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Spirit59c1,690$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019055.8%106 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23b2…ce61backed Spirit63c1,688$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.468065%52 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe949…33bebacked PARIVISION36c1,622$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.872650%13 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed PARIVISION42c1,605$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.7613546.7%63 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5818…44a3backed PARIVISION39c1,537$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.016248.4%30 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Spirit64c1,532$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.0246243.3%200 W · 262 L+1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed PARIVISION35c1,527$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.0216945%76 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28c7…fb64backed PARIVISION38c1,475$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.071154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked PARIVISION57c1,426$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.571,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x338c…1b33backed Spirit61c1,401$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.6816947.9%81 W · 88 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed PARIVISION41c1,384$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.8581843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed PARIVISION42c1,350$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.7234156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked PARIVISION45c1,324$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.8218049.4%89 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x835b…6f16backed PARIVISION41c1,304$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.363748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+22.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0394…3ef9backed Spirit10c1,300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1297418.9%14 W · 60 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+41.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION48c1,294$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.856,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Spirit58c1,293$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.412,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Spirit66c1,291$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.4612648.4%61 W · 65 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed Spirit58c1,218$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.5848437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Spirit65c1,209$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.425,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed PARIVISION42c1,190$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.485347.2%25 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked PARIVISION38c1,184$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.8475245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Spirit71c1,138$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.7145058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Spirit23c1,100$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.51,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed PARIVISION32c1,077$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.6615141.7%63 W · 88 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d1f…a252backed PARIVISION39c1,033$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.0815033.3%50 W · 100 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed PARIVISION41c1,010$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.7620838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Spirit49c1,000$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.923,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked PARIVISION37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63043640.6%177 W · 259 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed Spirit59c1,000$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.673447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61fe…0956backed PARIVISION48c993.44$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.2610663.2%67 W · 39 L+10.5wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked PARIVISION42c989.6$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.721939.7%87 W · 132 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed52…2dbdbacked PARIVISION43c960.75$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.7513553.3%72 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf131…36f7backed PARIVISION38c937.58$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.581369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick43cpaid+66.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Spirit68c900$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6127537.3%28 W · 47 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked PARIVISION57c870$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.135242.9%151 W · 201 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d9…7c50backed PARIVISION47c841.05$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.79475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+80.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed Spirit43c813.95$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3505151%26 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked PARIVISION64c804.23$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.6312352.8%65 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Spirit63c774.23$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.7746749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed Spirit41c767.68$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.7512941.1%53 W · 76 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ccc…6b82backed Spirit66c746.98$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.517850%39 W · 39 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x623c…122fbacked Spirit57c731.58$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-65.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x169e…88c9backed PARIVISION41c719.07$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.255957.6%34 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed PARIVISION32c694.03$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.8357322.3%128 W · 445 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Spirit69c691.34$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.1812446.8%58 W · 66 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ad8…075abacked Spirit60c666$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.6850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4564…c051backed PARIVISION34c603.89$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.895236.5%19 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.