TailMyPicks
Market

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof TheMongolz, Vitality
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$929,182

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $929,182 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 309 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b6f…ce60backed TheMongolz16c60,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed TheMongolz14c45,759$6,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,420.6722049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked TheMongolz16c31,250$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00019529.2%57 W · 138 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed TheMongolz7c25,464$1,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,757.0323355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed TheMongolz15c24,501$3,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,675.1846349.9%231 W · 232 L-1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed TheMongolz16c21,569$3,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,437.432240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa932…3081backed TheMongolz15c19,032$2,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,854.783363.6%21 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked TheMongolz17c17,338$2,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,914.943,25950.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L+98.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked TheMongolz15c16,650$2,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,497.58654.7%47 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked TheMongolz11c10,238$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.112,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed TheMongolz15c10,012$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.5337946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed TheMongolz10c9,576$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.432,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35a6…cb8fbacked TheMongolz15c9,488$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.636147.5%29 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9271…64a9backed TheMongolz0c8,250$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed TheMongolz3c7,723$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.2956732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed TheMongolz15c7,524$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.241,42333.6%478 W · 945 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed TheMongolz15c7,500$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12511637.9%44 W · 72 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b9…0eddbacked TheMongolz17c7,497$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,257.844645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked TheMongolz14c7,168$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.5812736.2%46 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b4…19acbacked TheMongolz9c6,700$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+29.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed TheMongolz16c6,500$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02512441.1%51 W · 73 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked TheMongolz16c6,250$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00035850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed TheMongolz15c6,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90072046.1%332 W · 388 L-2.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed TheMongolz15c5,427$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.053930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked TheMongolz15c5,278$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.691,72346.8%807 W · 916 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed TheMongolz7c5,085$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35035236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed TheMongolz15c5,040$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.9942341.8%177 W · 246 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed TheMongolz14c4,998$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.681,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked TheMongolz15c4,990$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.4914934.9%52 W · 97 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed TheMongolz12c4,890$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.9422448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed TheMongolz15c4,573$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68643933.7%148 W · 291 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8a9…3f60backed TheMongolz17c4,573$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.674052.5%21 W · 19 L+5.3wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+19.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked TheMongolz24c4,555$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.477,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed TheMongolz15c4,039$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.736742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked TheMongolz14c4,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56028538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec5d…11d5backed TheMongolz15c4,000$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.582347.8%11 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.25per pick23cpaid+110.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf5b7…3e1cbacked TheMongolz15c3,980$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5971241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed TheMongolz14c3,646$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.76,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd758…7af8backed TheMongolz15c3,636$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.347031.4%22 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed TheMongolz15c3,517$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.556634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked TheMongolz16c3,490$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.515,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9b…a5ebbacked TheMongolz4c3,326$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.214946.9%23 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9de…c026backed TheMongolz16c3,027$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.31546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25ab…6321backed TheMongolz6c3,000$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.219723.7%23 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed TheMongolz16c3,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48078939.5%312 W · 477 L-3.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed TheMongolz10c2,970$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.065,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x07d9…a32ebacked TheMongolz16c2,820$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.12450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+37.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x536a…d21dbacked TheMongolz16c2,520$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.21457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed TheMongolz12c2,302$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.641,64946.9%774 W · 875 L-28.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a4f…9b0cbacked TheMongolz16c2,302$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.258351.8%43 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2603…90b3backed TheMongolz15c2,200$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3304131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid+58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x338c…1b33backed TheMongolz10c2,134$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.3116947.9%81 W · 88 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed TheMongolz13c2,003$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.3775550.6%382 W · 373 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed TheMongolz16c2,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3204242.9%18 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed TheMongolz11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22019645.4%89 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed TheMongolz12c1,974$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.5833043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed TheMongolz10c1,954$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.4311740.2%47 W · 70 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked TheMongolz16c1,832$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.819834.8%69 W · 129 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed TheMongolz11c1,830$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.2515141.7%63 W · 88 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed TheMongolz15c1,722$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6885946.1%396 W · 463 L-1.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed TheMongolz11c1,703$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.3811633.6%39 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed TheMongolz15c1,701$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25511940.3%48 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed TheMongolz18c1,697$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.0780744.6%360 W · 447 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked TheMongolz9c1,631$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed TheMongolz16c1,563$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe749…f660backed TheMongolz16c1,560$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.61070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed TheMongolz18c1,534$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.0246344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x301c…241fbacked TheMongolz17c1,506$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.0250%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x682c…ef07backed TheMongolz16c1,500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24016446.3%76 W · 88 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa8…c667backed TheMongolz15c1,477$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.782133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed TheMongolz3c1,274$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2218724.1%45 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26ac…a735backed TheMongolz16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20024429.5%72 W · 172 L-0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed TheMongolz14c1,249$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.1516935.5%60 W · 109 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf8ab…13a1backed Vitality80c1,200$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2406747.8%32 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed TheMongolz16c1,200$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19253746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa62d…92e0backed TheMongolz15c1,200$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed TheMongolz8c1,143$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4212638.9%49 W · 77 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked TheMongolz10c1,135$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.771,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed TheMongolz13c1,097$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.416848.5%33 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed TheMongolz14c1,073$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2324544.5%109 W · 136 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc939…6e0fbacked TheMongolz16c1,063$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1709044.4%40 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a4f…9cffbacked TheMongolz16c1,054$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe297…e484backed TheMongolz8c1,054$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1332258.7%189 W · 133 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed52…2dbdbacked TheMongolz16c1,050$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16813553.3%72 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a50…fa1fbacked TheMongolz15c1,013$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3735…3d9dbacked TheMongolz16c1,006$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.913925.6%10 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed TheMongolz16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1608847.7%42 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed TheMongolz16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16061855%340 W · 278 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed TheMongolz20c1,000$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.181,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked TheMongolz16c1,000$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.53,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked TheMongolz20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed TheMongolz15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,08950.9%554 W · 535 L+38.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed TheMongolz17c1,000$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.74,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked TheMongolz11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefad…501fbacked TheMongolz16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+170.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed TheMongolz15c999.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15055736.3%202 W · 355 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06db…1e5cbacked TheMongolz11c995.37$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1108146.9%38 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed TheMongolz18c956$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.9429647.6%141 W · 155 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed TheMongolz14c951.93$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0783643.5%364 W · 472 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed TheMongolz16c937$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9260248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.