Token Launches · resolved market
Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fa526e72d64e022219a7d77ea0acdae15398f7f4df3457583af6f3c3769d9d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 77c | 1,500$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 1,463$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.82 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c2…c7aebacked Yes | 24c | 1,074$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.81 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…d595backed No | 33c | 1,057$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +201.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x257c…9618backed No | 76c | 970.41$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes | 64c | 899.98$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df1…f1a7backed Yes | 37c | 867$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…85c9backed Yes | 19c | 856.14$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.21 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 45c | 778.18$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.63 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 29c | 697.32$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.96 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed No | 58c | 618.48$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.76 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed No | 50c | 582.58$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.68 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 549$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x527f…0ae5backed Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…594fbacked Yes | 63c | 472.88$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 25c | 455.58$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.63 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d73…a6f4backed No | 38c | 451.06$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 64c | 388.88$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.19 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 66c | 342$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1739…cfbbbacked No | 66c | 328.84$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 78c | 300$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 45c | 293.01$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.38 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 47c | 276.03$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.82 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc77c…0d02backed No | 71c | 260$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfab…30a1backed No | 40c | 251.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 68c | 238.59$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.38 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…d18fbacked No | 79c | 234.72$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes | 50c | 227.95$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.22 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd990…749ebacked Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 45c | 195.69$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed Yes | 45c | 179.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.88 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 34c | 164.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 65c | 164.06$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5f…e612backed Yes | 40c | 153$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…eec6backed No | 28c | 150$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +252.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 148.32$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 36c | 140.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b23…4528backed Yes | 71c | 140$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 52c | 138.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 40c | 110.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 60c | 100.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 43c | 95.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 61c | 89.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d34…1b30backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes | 42c | 88.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 53c | 88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0f…b11dbacked No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 13c | 78.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251d…01eebacked Yes | 69c | 77.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 33c | 74.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd38f…bf78backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…d65abacked No | 62c | 69.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed Yes | 38c | 68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c88…1275backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…32b7backed Yes | 41c | 51.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 63c | 51.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8199…bb6dbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x004f…1e4ebacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…653fbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Yes | 41c | 46.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 32c | 45.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…85edbacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 34c | 36.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +214.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe260…72e8backed No | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…0f6ebacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4263…7aecbacked No | 42c | 25.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed No | 64c | 20.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Aligned FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Aligned FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Aligned FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Aligned FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.