Token Launches · resolved market
Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0653f1794f95243a40a66f2e62c6dae798bdbe8cfba04843b87ca3a092f0a4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d73…a6f4backed No | 2c | 6,450$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed No | 12c | 3,093$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.83 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked Yes | 70c | 1,501$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.5 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,199$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,107$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…a399backed No | 29c | 994.77$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 985$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 13c | 551.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 7c | 460.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…67e6backed No | 30c | 433.38$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 78c | 406.85$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.12 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked No | 23c | 153.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 11c | 97.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes | 78c | 96.53$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 95.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 16c | 83.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…da8dbacked Yes | 72c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8199…bb6dbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5957…3faabacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 78c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…32b7backed Yes | 79c | 29.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 80c | 28.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 74c | 24.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…eddcbacked Yes | 69c | 20.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2a…65b3backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 78c | 19.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?this page
- Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Aligned FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Aligned FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Aligned FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Aligned FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.