Token Launches · resolved market
Aligned FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41d929e830bd779468d6905d441c05f6988f60b2905d03770378e3b32a1b3d70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b3…a139backed Yes | 5c | 1,632$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 34c | 1,450$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.33 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 70c | 1,050$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.76 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,018$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed No | 66c | 603.09$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.63 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes | 8c | 525$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 524$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad4…1704backed No | 63c | 509.47$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.34 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5d…909abacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…653fbacked Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 467.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed No | 77c | 285.21$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 8c | 266.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed Yes | 11c | 173.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 59c | 148.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…594fbacked Yes | 11c | 131.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes | 41c | 101.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b9…90d0backed Yes | 40c | 98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ea…6a44backed Yes | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 32c | 57.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1595…d923backed No | 64c | 46.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb275…6cb2backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…c1d9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aligned FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Aligned FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Aligned FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Aligned FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.