Token Launches · resolved market
Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ed8f51819645d2cdb20eed1e57abd194d53cd307bf71efd07ec9359957230b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d73…a6f4backed No | 10c | 1,557$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed Yes | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 50c | 1,155$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.51 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 894$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 25c | 777.98$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.72 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked Yes | 80c | 633.31$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.49 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed Yes | 79c | 615.2$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.93 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df1…f1a7backed Yes | 75c | 608$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…ebaebacked No | 79c | 531.94$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.87 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x527f…0ae5backed Yes | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba9…6432backed No | 13c | 450.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed No | 25c | 393.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e1a8backed No | 10c | 351.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 313.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 38c | 273.24$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.07 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed Yes | 78c | 260$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…a399backed No | 39c | 245.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed No | 23c | 217.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 8c | 175$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 73c | 108.49$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…67e6backed Yes | 75c | 107$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 23c | 106.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes | 72c | 103.8$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 23c | 90.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 33c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 22c | 89.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324d…cdf3backed No | 27c | 73.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No | 71c | 67.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +10.3wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 69c | 66.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…d18fbacked Yes | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8199…bb6dbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e18…a2cebacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…b385backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…32b7backed Yes | 71c | 47.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 39.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…2030backed No | 79c | 37.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 68c | 28.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 49c | 28.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1595…d923backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x416d…2dc9backed No | 65c | 20.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.2wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd990…749ebacked Yes | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Aligned FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Aligned FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Aligned FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Aligned FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.