Movies · resolved market
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 480m and 520m by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x965d44076e2e3e7c52a104774cba59854cb6e89b79b15f8b4e945d6a8abb124e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $899,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $487,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $899,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafbc…e185backed Yes | 1c | 48,097$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…5c36backed Yes | 1c | 38,218$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 34,714$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 1c | 34,414$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.38 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbf…9afabacked Yes | 0c | 30,232$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 28,990$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.41 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 24,379$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 1c | 22,909$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.05 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 22,810$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.62 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes | 1c | 19,643$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes | 1c | 17,997$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.74 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39de…a94bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,817$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…2edbbacked Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d8…dc94backed Yes | 1c | 13,735$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…f22bbacked Yes | 1c | 13,500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.89 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 12,663$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.78 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 11,166$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.02 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dad…3cd4backed Yes | 0c | 10,705$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Yes | 1c | 10,097$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…b1fdbacked Yes | 4c | 10,000$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.79 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…4d88backed Yes | 1c | 7,784$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…3c53backed Yes | 2c | 7,744$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…5d38backed Yes | 1c | 7,698$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,504$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.15 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…9032backed Yes | 0c | 7,425$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,129$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 2c | 6,727$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.6 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,726$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0eb…e702backed Yes | 0c | 6,546$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,976$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes | 1c | 5,658$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,489$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Yes | 1c | 5,466$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,035$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 4,996$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 4,979$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…0a15backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes | 1c | 3,700$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…b8e5backed Yes | 3c | 3,688$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.94 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 3c | 3,596$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.41 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5b…4a6dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,586$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 5c | 3,443$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.73 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes | 6c | 3,398$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.59 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 3,390$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…d380backed Yes | 1c | 3,320$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf41…e809backed Yes | 2c | 3,251$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 1c | 3,123$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes | 2c | 3,014$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…ab7cbacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,979$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…a480backed Yes | 1c | 2,923$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…3bfdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,920$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 2,771$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,644$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 2,490$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…a82cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,278$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 1c | 2,141$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…fbf4backed Yes | 1c | 2,073$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,064$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.13 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859b…297ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,961$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,958$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…6459backed Yes | 3c | 1,709$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,705$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,696$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.36 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0fd1backed Yes | 2c | 1,652$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc340…1814backed Yes | 1c | 1,634$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dda…6ec7backed Yes | 6c | 1,629$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c40…3d64backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3937…ffa8backed Yes | 8c | 1,365$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,310$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…ffadbacked Yes | 1c | 1,290$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,108$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 14c | 1,088$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.94 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd213…cd2cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,056$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 2c | 1,052$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,015$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf26…e5e5backed Yes | 4c | 1,015$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,005$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…ae72backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 2c | 971.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 4c | 957.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 883.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…1398backed Yes | 2c | 566.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e07…9ecebacked Yes | 2c | 529.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 501.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…bd15backed Yes | 5c | 496.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba2e…f687backed Yes | 8c | 463.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9211…ae7abacked Yes | 9c | 456.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 5c | 439.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 416.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf3…85d2backed Yes | 5c | 406.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a5…2fafbacked Yes | 7c | 348.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 3c | 326.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…2a11backed Yes | 5c | 298.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7c…5399backed Yes | 7c | 281.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6489…71ebbacked Yes | 5c | 277.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked Yes | 4c | 264.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf489…4cb0backed Yes | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 480m and 520m by January 31?this page
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?No won
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?No won
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than 520m by January 31?No won
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.