Movies · resolved market
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than 520m by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1dd9160098983c7aa8e50230ca50f414757185a52854935cd10a9b165910e5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,509,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $820,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,509,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecbf…9afabacked Yes | 0c | 75,574$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…4dccbacked Yes | 0c | 74,582$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a7…b884backed Yes | 0c | 65,413$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…5c36backed Yes | 1c | 47,295$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…e185backed Yes | 2c | 44,891$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.69 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…4d88backed Yes | 1c | 43,751$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 40,500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…3c53backed Yes | 1c | 29,413$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 26,129$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 25,051$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.27 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…2edbbacked Yes | 0c | 23,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 22,264$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.3 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78a…2d03backed Yes | 0c | 14,862$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 2c | 14,765$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.21 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 13,195$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.12 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 12,562$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7549…abbfbacked Yes | 0c | 11,488$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 1c | 11,176$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.19 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39de…a94bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65da…bf76backed Yes | 0c | 10,598$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes | 0c | 10,500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…7de2backed Yes | 0c | 10,171$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…39bdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,152$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes | 2c | 9,738$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.78 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d8…dc94backed Yes | 1c | 9,618$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 6c | 9,606$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.74 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ce…e5e3backed Yes | 0c | 8,518$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…9032backed Yes | 0c | 8,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 0c | 7,950$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dad…3cd4backed Yes | 0c | 7,775$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5b…4a6dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,316$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,901$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,771$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…b8e5backed Yes | 3c | 6,759$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,726$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,950$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 5,826$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes | 1c | 5,155$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 5,107$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e07…9ecebacked Yes | 2c | 5,098$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…1ed9backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…f22bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 70c | 4,999$3,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.3 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,789$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 1c | 4,489$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 4,360$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…840ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,070$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…5623backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 1c | 3,690$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…a480backed Yes | 1c | 3,400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf26…e5e5backed Yes | 2c | 3,382$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859b…297ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,278$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…b99bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,239$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 0c | 3,022$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6489…71ebbacked Yes | 1c | 2,997$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…5d38backed Yes | 2c | 2,860$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,855$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,811$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 2c | 2,660$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…4757backed Yes | 1c | 2,642$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…63b9backed Yes | 39c | 2,585$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked Yes | 1c | 2,530$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dda…6ec7backed Yes | 2c | 2,525$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,523$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…d380backed Yes | 1c | 2,501$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,297$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 3c | 2,280$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4463…f3d0backed Yes | 28c | 1,816$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,701$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…a82cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,485$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb364…0148backed Yes | 1c | 1,383$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da5…25edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,316$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 1c | 1,248$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2e…f687backed Yes | 3c | 1,080$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1454…4604backed Yes | 1c | 1,079$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…8779backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed7…5f67backed Yes | 3c | 999.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 2c | 931.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…2a11backed Yes | 2c | 711.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5792…7731backed Yes | 3c | 709.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…28f4backed Yes | 2c | 708.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 2c | 702.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 651.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…1398backed Yes | 3c | 617.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 5c | 511.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…1403backed Yes | 2c | 502.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…e84dbacked No | 75c | 500$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 3c | 481.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 2c | 439.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Yes | 4c | 396.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f0…d5cfbacked Yes | 4c | 374.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…bb60backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes | 4c | 284.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 278.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61db…12fcbacked Yes | 5c | 237.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…0f57backed Yes | 24c | 206.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 76c | 203.45$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…2b91backed Yes | 20c | 199.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than 520m by January 31?this page
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?No won
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?No won
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 480m and 520m by January 31?No won
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.