TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Broncos (-13.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Chiefsof Broncos, Chiefs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,586,048
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,589,402

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,586,048 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 320 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Chiefs50c517,377$257,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259,428.0886547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Chiefs50c501,000$248,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252,070.77554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x801e…ad90backed Broncos50c406,658$203,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203,328.883050%15 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Broncos51c224,503$114,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114,496.691656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Broncos49c224,477$109,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109,993.643767.6%25 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Broncos50c150,000$75,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,0006248.4%30 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Broncos49c91,944$45,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,052.773850%19 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Broncos50c49,369$24,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,869.9553348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Broncos50c48,878$24,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,624.6247348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Broncos51c35,000$17,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,85013654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Broncos50c30,000$15,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,10016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked Broncos50c20,001$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000.444452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Broncos50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0002441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Broncos50c12,074$6,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,047.3177052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Chiefs51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Broncos50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010648.1%51 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Chiefs51c9,914$5,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,857.6254451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Broncos50c9,850$4,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,925.154546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Broncos50c9,607$4,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,803.7331240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Chiefs51c9,000$4,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,41026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Broncos10c7,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7505042%21 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Broncos50c7,186$3,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,593.116860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Chiefs49c7,000$3,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,570.0183147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Chiefs50c6,002$3,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,000.947557.3%43 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Chiefs50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00014252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Chiefs50c5,309$2,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,654.729359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf782…6849backed Chiefs49c5,305$2,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,707.684146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Chiefs50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50025744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Broncos49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa25…05e8backed Chiefs78c5,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1002948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7d…ec26backed Broncos51c4,505$2,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,297.561936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-41.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Chiefs51c4,100$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,02018650.5%94 W · 92 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Chiefs52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9201250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaceb…6f8ebacked Broncos51c3,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-27.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Broncos49c3,198$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.0523937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Broncos49c3,111$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.2928447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf042…e5bcbacked Broncos49c3,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-59.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Broncos42c2,949$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.8550242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Broncos49c2,908$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.9121254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f92…1862backed Broncos50c2,850$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4252821.4%6 W · 22 L-6.5wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-50%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed Chiefs56c2,509$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.3410548.6%51 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Broncos12c2,301$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.67164.8%46 W · 25 L+10.7wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+33.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Chiefs50c2,242$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.3239242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Chiefs51c2,184$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.8131450%157 W · 157 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Broncos59c2,107$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.2416955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Chiefs50c2,070$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,03518650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed Broncos49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004744.7%21 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Chiefs50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0003125.8%8 W · 23 L-6.3wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-54.2%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x266b…8da2backed Chiefs50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0003444.1%15 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Broncos50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005358.5%31 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed Broncos51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0203943.6%17 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Broncos49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9807152.1%37 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3300…568bbacked Broncos50c1,987$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.71070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+21.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Chiefs51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.8914035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xecd3…4285backed Broncos50c1,738$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8691060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3484…0e64backed Broncos50c1,559$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.33425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Broncos50c1,557$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77711255.4%62 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Chiefs51c1,500$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7407533.3%25 W · 50 L-8.2wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed Chiefs51c1,373$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.553743.2%16 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Broncos50c1,241$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.581,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Chiefs51c1,220$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.817251.7%89 W · 83 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee7e…61bbbacked Chiefs50c1,090$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.22161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xea89…0b5fbacked Chiefs51c1,078$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.435046%23 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Broncos49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007361.6%45 W · 28 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0bd3…c066backed Broncos50c1,001$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004736.2%17 W · 30 L-7.8wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-34%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Chiefs55c1,000$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.73246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Chiefs50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5002450%12 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Chiefs50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+29.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Broncos50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003033.3%10 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Broncos50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50015555.5%86 W · 69 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Chiefs52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48026648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Broncos48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48012445.2%56 W · 68 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Broncos49c999.99$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49013435.8%48 W · 86 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe08e…1d61backed Chiefs51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.393941%16 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Broncos22c940$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.768446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Chiefs51c900$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4411952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…b1b1backed Broncos50c896.08$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502626.9%7 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-42.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Broncos29c872.73$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.476055%33 W · 27 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb65c…dcdfbacked Broncos49c859.8$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.3944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Chiefs50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40039754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Chiefs50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40016648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Broncos51c800$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40814151.8%73 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83c1…32f7backed Broncos50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004940.8%20 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Chiefs47c761.6$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.972240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed Broncos51c750$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.52250%11 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Broncos11c711.56$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3864747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Broncos50c670$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3355949.2%29 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Broncos49c656$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.4426649.6%132 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6087…766ebacked Broncos50c640$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa3e…949bbacked Broncos51c618.69$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.5330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8021…0da8backed Broncos50c602.6$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.774551.1%23 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Broncos50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa61d…df1abacked Broncos50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010555.2%58 W · 47 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Chiefs50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30012151.2%62 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Broncos25c580$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1631543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Broncos48c571.96$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.541,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Broncos49c562.3$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.127454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cd0…5b9cbacked Broncos50c540.88$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.44633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Broncos31c536.05$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.2235648%171 W · 185 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Chiefs50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25015446.8%72 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.