TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$442,730
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$429,735

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $442,730 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 252 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Over50c145,402$72,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,676.5786547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Under50c60,000$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,0004955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Under50c50,667$25,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,346.839359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Over50c44,444$22,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,2229245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Under44c40,000$17,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,399.953850%19 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Under50c38,098$19,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,000.7616860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2a69…5500backed Over51c27,200$13,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,87210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8731…6e64backed Under49c27,200$13,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,872250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd89e…35fabacked Over51c26,050$13,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,285.52045%9 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Under50c21,000$10,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,49027454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under50c18,317$9,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,225.2847348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Over24c12,257$2,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,996.3568446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over51c10,595$5,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,408.477052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over25c10,456$2,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,644.3964747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,10013560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c9,861$4,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,160.711,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Over55c8,623$4,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,742.4419553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over51c8,427$4,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,297.675852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over56c7,133$3,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,994.5153348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Over51c6,500$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.992360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8ac…c62dbacked Over54c4,818$2,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,611.471637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.9939447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Under49c3,181$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,622.38650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over56c2,679$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005149%25 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under50c2,500$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25015252.6%80 W · 72 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Under43c2,482$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.622740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under47c2,435$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.9631450%157 W · 157 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Over56c2,322$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.4518650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Over55c2,259$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.7116051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00065048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Under49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02010156.4%57 W · 44 L+7.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under48c1,978$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.5556852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over27c1,877$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.648847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Over57c1,600$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9125766.7%38 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Over6c1,498$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0511122.5%25 W · 86 L+13.9wins+0.13per pick10cpaid+428.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over55c1,466$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.2254451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Under52c1,431$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.4414641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under49c1,429$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.571546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under50c1,422$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71111255.4%62 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Under53c1,318$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.626055%33 W · 27 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x128a…f49ebacked Under45c1,200$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.672955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abf…6024backed Over51c1,166$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004045%18 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under50c1,148$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5741,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8857…f34ebacked Over6c1,100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.95425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+217.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed30…f821backed Under69c1,087$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.963100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+57.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Under68c1,029$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.415042%21 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56026648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Over41c965.04$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.168650%43 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Over52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007661.8%47 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3a1…3529backed Over53c935.85$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4962142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Over4c900$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.68549.3%5 W · 49 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Over53c900$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4771952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4138…6a24backed Under59c853.02$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.025265.4%34 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over50c802.91$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.4334652.9%183 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under49c800$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40813959%82 W · 57 L+12.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Under47c750$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.54555.6%25 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa445…6711backed Under47c706.59$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.75944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Over57c701.75$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40016648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Over51c700$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35523447.9%112 W · 122 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Over56c560.65$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3145345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Under49c543$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.522744.4%12 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb590…15d3backed Over56c535.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004250%21 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7c…8eabbacked Over56c535.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013652.2%71 W · 65 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Over51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25513641.2%56 W · 80 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7253…89edbacked Under48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea31…f286backed Over55c499.99$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.991127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-51%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over23c488$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.8735648%171 W · 185 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Over25c484.05$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.017164.8%46 W · 25 L+10.7wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+33.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under50c476.22$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.8720555.6%114 W · 91 L+15.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over30c422.93$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9332043.8%140 W · 180 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb74d…9b2abacked Over7c400$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick11cpaid+128.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Over56c400$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2247549.3%37 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Over49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19612445.2%56 W · 68 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Under42c376.01$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.253447.1%16 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbde…a758backed Under43c360$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.24257.1%24 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x64c6…244cbacked Over56c358.25$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc406…82c4backed Over57c352.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb2b…a46cbacked Over51c349.16$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd8…84b2backed Under50c348.3$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8208…1742backed Over52c320.15$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1671450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed Under55c313.84$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.4710548.6%51 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Under49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15316957.4%97 W · 72 L+15.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15317656.3%99 W · 77 L+16.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Under45c295.56$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.5615855.7%88 W · 70 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c8c…237dbacked Over22c295.4$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.14768.1%32 W · 15 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+42.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x4b33…8c31backed Under50c292.46$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.071850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under70c286.47$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9350242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Under35c282.23$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.457435.1%26 W · 48 L+7.3wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+57.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Over57c275$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1565947.5%28 W · 31 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Under48c269.36$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.0715446.8%72 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Over57c260$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.28345.8%38 W · 45 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd652…7ba5backed Over37c254.84$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over22c250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.628146.9%38 W · 43 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Under50c240$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1206663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+30.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x68e0…a3a6backed Under50c239$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.51861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under50c236.78$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.3916360.1%98 W · 65 L+16.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked Over52c230.77$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e03…7f54backed Over56c225$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1262020%4 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Over20c221.37$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2725744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc443…7046backed Over49c220$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-60.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.