NFL · resolved market
Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81e011b4463692c179f07627560c4b7cec5c5ec7aa41c179f1d254b8e920be6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiefsof Broncos, Chiefs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chiefs | 26c | 1,204$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.68 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Broncos | 2c | 1,025$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe21a…88edbacked Broncos | 79c | 787.66$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.25 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…26a3backed Chiefs | 21c | 599.97$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Broncos | 69c | 500$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.75 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…eb93backed Broncos | 78c | 500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Chiefs | 20c | 491.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.43 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Chiefs | 34c | 413.02$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.2 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b9…5455backed Chiefs | 21c | 333.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.33 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Broncos | 79c | 300$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Chiefs | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Chiefs | 21c | 260$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Chiefs | 21c | 176$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.04 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…67dfbacked Broncos | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…e0dfbacked Broncos | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Broncos | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd379…aa64backed Chiefs | 21c | 96.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Chiefs | 21c | 94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…2da7backed Broncos | 42c | 85.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Broncos | 79c | 85.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Chiefs | 20c | 82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Chiefs | 21c | 80$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Chiefs | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…2fc5backed Broncos | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Broncos | 54c | 73.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Chiefs | 20c | 69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fe…104dbacked Broncos | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked Broncos | 77c | 62.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Chiefs | 20c | 61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Broncos | 56c | 56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…432abacked Broncos | 79c | 45.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…7544backed Broncos | 79c | 41.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Broncos | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Broncos | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Broncos | 80c | 33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 58cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Broncos | 80c | 31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Broncos | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Broncos | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Broncos | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Broncos | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Broncos | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed Broncos | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Broncos | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Broncos | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 58cpaid | -75%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Broncos | 80c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Broncos | 79c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Broncos | 79c | 26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…6ce0backed Broncos | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Broncos | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Broncos | 79c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Broncos | 79c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe91…4462backed Broncos | 79c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…2138backed Broncos | 80c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Broncos | 79c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Broncos | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Broncos | 80c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Broncos | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Broncos | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Broncos | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Broncos | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Broncos | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Broncos | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9904…c488backed Broncos | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda98…a6a9backed Broncos | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Broncos | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed Broncos | 80c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Broncos | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Broncos | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Broncos | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96ae…89d9backed Broncos | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…87a4backed Broncos | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Broncos | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…6d13backed Broncos | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed Broncos | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Broncos | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Broncos | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 52cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9db5…701ebacked Broncos | 80c | 12.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…cf3cbacked Broncos | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-6.5)Chiefs won
- Broncos Team Total: O/U 15.5Over won
- Broncos vs. ChiefsBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 18.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 19.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 37.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Broncos (-11.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Broncos (-12.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Broncos (-13.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.