NFL · resolved market
Spread: Broncos (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c2732acbc0dce19024cfb7289c2a8cd9b900c93a770d0dfee8760e47f6e43e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiefsof Broncos, Chiefs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9315…a744backed Chiefs | 44c | 12,047$5,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,746.32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…1a5dbacked Broncos | 56c | 12,047$6,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,746.32 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Chiefs | 43c | 10,363$4,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,906.63 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…f944backed Broncos | 57c | 8,325$4,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,745.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 61cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chiefs | 44c | 6,573$2,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,680.88 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Broncos | 57c | 6,491$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Chiefs | 43c | 6,252$2,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,563.6 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +14.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Broncos | 56c | 5,400$3,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,024 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Broncos | 57c | 4,707$2,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,690 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Chiefs | 44c | 1,600$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chiefs | 43c | 1,443$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.13 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Broncos | 56c | 1,426$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chiefs | 43c | 1,279$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.02 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chiefs | 43c | 1,203$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.21 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f4…c918backed Broncos | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Broncos | 55c | 942$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.66 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Broncos | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chiefs | 42c | 834.94$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.09 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Chiefs | 44c | 539.82$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.3 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb03c…7db3backed Broncos | 57c | 528.07$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.18 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Chiefs | 43c | 421.4$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.2 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Broncos | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Broncos | 56c | 392.23$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ba…e6b7backed Broncos | 57c | 352.89$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.15 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Broncos | 57c | 351.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…4daabacked Broncos | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Chiefs | 53c | 343.08$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.35 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c78…1af0backed Broncos | 57c | 291.23$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Broncos | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Chiefs | 45c | 241.25$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Chiefs | 43c | 240$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Chiefs | 43c | 240$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…454abacked Broncos | 57c | 228.16$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.05 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Broncos | 57c | 226.32$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…040abacked Broncos | 56c | 223.21$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Chiefs | 43c | 221.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.19 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Broncos | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Chiefs | 44c | 200$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Chiefs | 43c | 180$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Chiefs | 43c | 180$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…269fbacked Broncos | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x54f6…1fd0backed Broncos | 58c | 132.95$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Broncos | 40c | 129.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Broncos | 57c | 128.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…94febacked Broncos | 48c | 127.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Chiefs | 45c | 126$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Chiefs | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Broncos | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Chiefs | 44c | 112$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Broncos | 57c | 109.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Chiefs | 44c | 101$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95bc…9f00backed Broncos | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…37c1backed Broncos | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Chiefs | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Chiefs | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Broncos | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Broncos | 54c | 99.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Broncos | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Chiefs | 44c | 72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Chiefs | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Chiefs | 44c | 67.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Broncos | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Chiefs | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Chiefs | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 105 | 65.7%69 W · 36 L | +16.6wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Chiefs | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +14.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Chiefs | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Broncos | 54c | 59.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Chiefs | 44c | 58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f4…4763backed Broncos | 57c | 56.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Chiefs | 44c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Chiefs | 44c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Chiefs | 44c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…3d76backed Broncos | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Broncos | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Chiefs | 44c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3415…034cbacked Chiefs | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Broncos | 56c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Chiefs | 44c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Broncos | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Broncos | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Chiefs | 44c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…c163backed Broncos | 57c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Chiefs | 44c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Chiefs | 42c | 40.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Chiefs | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Chiefs | 49c | 39.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Broncos | 56c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…4c2cbacked Broncos | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Broncos | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…8260backed Broncos | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed Broncos | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Broncos | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…69a8backed Broncos | 56c | 32.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…8610backed Broncos | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Broncos | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed Broncos | 56c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Chiefs | 43c | 30.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Chiefs | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Broncos | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Broncos | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Broncos (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-6.5)Chiefs won
- Broncos Team Total: O/U 15.5Over won
- Broncos vs. ChiefsBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H MoneylineChiefs won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 18.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 19.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 37.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Broncos (-12.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Broncos (-13.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.