NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Broncos (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51f391fd1828b560fad8aa138bf980a1f1f7e81da91a733f76c55a0ebef9b047
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiefsof Broncos, Chiefs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c82…c8ccbacked Broncos | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Chiefs | 44c | 330.12$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.01 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chiefs | 42c | 300.24$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.36 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73eb…26fcbacked Chiefs | 42c | 233.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75a0…be02backed Broncos | 58c | 209.69$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.62 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97b9…5455backed Broncos | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Broncos | 58c | 143$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Chiefs | 43c | 140$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Broncos | 60c | 130$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Chiefs | 43c | 99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Chiefs | 43c | 96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Chiefs | 43c | 81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Broncos | 55c | 76.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Chiefs | 43c | 64.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Chiefs | 43c | 62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Chiefs | 43c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…d0c8backed Broncos | 56c | 44.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Broncos | 57c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Broncos | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…2da7backed Chiefs | 40c | 39.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Broncos | 57c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed Broncos | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Broncos | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Broncos | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Broncos | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Chiefs | 44c | 27.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Broncos | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Broncos | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed Broncos | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91a2…cc98backed Broncos | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…4c2cbacked Broncos | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Broncos | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Broncos | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7773…f936backed Broncos | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…15ebbacked Chiefs | 46c | 21.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +51%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Broncos | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Broncos | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Broncos | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Broncos | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…edcebacked Broncos | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…581ebacked Broncos | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-6.5)this page
- Broncos Team Total: O/U 15.5Over won
- Broncos vs. ChiefsBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H MoneylineChiefs won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 18.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 19.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 37.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Broncos (-11.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Broncos (-12.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Broncos (-13.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.