NFL · resolved market
Spread: Broncos (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca4977cec3b2d0406fd2feaa657e7237045b4e0a6ba8d3dbc96df1ed6608dbd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiefsof Broncos, Chiefs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Broncos | 53c | 41,239$21,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,837.48 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Chiefs | 47c | 39,495$18,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,957.34 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chiefs | 47c | 4,846$2,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.48 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Chiefs | 46c | 4,700$2,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,538 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Broncos | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Broncos | 53c | 2,960$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.32 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Broncos | 43c | 1,757$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Broncos | 54c | 1,700$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…8e3cbacked Chiefs | 47c | 1,596$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.74 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chiefs | 41c | 1,254$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.59 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Broncos | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Broncos | 53c | 800$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb900…c4c7backed Broncos | 54c | 444.44$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…a6e2backed Broncos | 55c | 419$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Broncos | 55c | 360$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbf…b7febacked Chiefs | 47c | 198$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…d7cebacked Broncos | 54c | 198$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Chiefs | 46c | 128$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Chiefs | 46c | 125$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Chiefs | 46c | 114$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Chiefs | 47c | 102.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Broncos | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Chiefs | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Chiefs | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Broncos | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Chiefs | 44c | 94.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Chiefs | 47c | 88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Chiefs | 46c | 79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Chiefs | 46c | 67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Broncos | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Chiefs | 46c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1900…e0a8backed Chiefs | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Chiefs | 47c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Chiefs | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Broncos | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked Broncos | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 220 | 53.2%117 W · 103 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Broncos | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Broncos | 53c | 50.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…d0c8backed Broncos | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dd…1417backed Chiefs | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Chiefs | 47c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Broncos | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Broncos | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Broncos | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Chiefs | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Broncos | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Broncos | 53c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Broncos | 54c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Broncos | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Broncos | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Broncos | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Broncos | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Broncos | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…9289backed Chiefs | 47c | 30.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b33…8c31backed Chiefs | 47c | 28.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked Broncos | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Broncos | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…a3d3backed Broncos | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Broncos | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed Chiefs | 45c | 27.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Chiefs | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Broncos | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Broncos | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Broncos | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…c438backed Broncos | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Broncos | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…7ed2backed Broncos | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Broncos | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Broncos | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Broncos (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-6.5)Chiefs won
- Broncos Team Total: O/U 15.5Over won
- Broncos vs. ChiefsBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H MoneylineChiefs won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 18.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 19.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 37.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Broncos (-11.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Broncos (-13.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.