NFL · resolved market
Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f16b4d81d595fe5061edd3a3ec3831bdda874431224b05e02df1f8a915443b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Under | 70c | 5,170$3,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…37c1backed Under | 72c | 1,101$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.37 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 73c | 975.99$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.52 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Over | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 28c | 600.22$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.06 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Over | 27c | 555.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…8cd4backed Over | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Under | 71c | 480$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 68c | 418$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.76 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Over | 27c | 400.73$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Over | 31c | 399.96$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.7 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 73c | 339.36$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 27c | 250.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 28c | 142.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Over | 27c | 101.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Over | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x82f7…7496backed Under | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Under | 76c | 34.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Under | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.27per pick | 42cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…4c2cbacked Under | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 68c | 24.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.5this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-6.5)Chiefs won
- Broncos Team Total: O/U 15.5Over won
- Broncos vs. ChiefsBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H MoneylineChiefs won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 18.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 19.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 37.5Under won
- Spread: Broncos (-11.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Broncos (-12.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Broncos (-13.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.