UFC · resolved market
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb41b27159cb71e35e6dc19dc285908f65546a350b8ca8db730ada55be5eceda3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 10c | 596.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 10c | 529.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…f4dfbacked Yes | 26c | 384.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x626e…fa46backed Yes | 11c | 338.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 79c | 152.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33be…adc8backed Yes | 13c | 139.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…6944backed No | 79c | 126.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…1b8fbacked Yes | 20c | 50.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 76c | 18.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250?this page
- Will Adam Sandler attend UFC Freedom 250?No won
- Will Anne Hathaway attend UFC Freedom 250?No won
- Will Bad Bunny attend UFC Freedom 250?No won
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250?No won
- Will Chris Rock attend UFC Freedom 250?No won
- Will Cristiano Ronaldo attend UFC Freedom 250?No won
- Will Drake attend UFC Freedom 250?No won
- Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250?No won
- Will Jon Stewart attend UFC Freedom 250?No won
- Will Lady Gaga attend UFC Freedom 250?No won
- Will Larry David attend UFC Freedom 250?No won
- Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250?No won
- Will MrBeast attend UFC Freedom 250?No won
- Will Selena Gomez attend UFC Freedom 250?No won
- Will Sydney Sweeney attend UFC Freedom 250?No won
- Will Travis Scott attend UFC Freedom 250?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.