UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82b5bfec85a1df48c0d8ba7273eadf09dc03ee98b9c517a6613e90443ab9478c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marwan Rahikiof Marwan Rahiki, Ollie Schmid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Ollie Schmid | 15c | 22,105$3,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,315.8 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Ollie Schmid | 16c | 6,739$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.21 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd445…d5e9backed Ollie Schmid | 15c | 5,330$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Ollie Schmid | 17c | 3,318$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…7546backed Ollie Schmid | 17c | 3,246$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Ollie Schmid | 15c | 3,150$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Ollie Schmid | 17c | 2,944$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.01 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Ollie Schmid | 18c | 2,636$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.12 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa56…f7fcbacked Ollie Schmid | 15c | 2,200$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Ollie Schmid | 15c | 1,697$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.59 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Ollie Schmid | 16c | 1,336$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.84 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe956…c4e0backed Ollie Schmid | 16c | 1,032$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd720…d671backed Ollie Schmid | 17c | 978.12$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Ollie Schmid | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5e…3a87backed Ollie Schmid | 19c | 522.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf65b…e257backed Ollie Schmid | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0a…cf78backed Ollie Schmid | 17c | 485.93$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…decfbacked Ollie Schmid | 16c | 444.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…029bbacked Marwan Rahiki | 74c | 409.17$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.16 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f94…f992backed Ollie Schmid | 16c | 375$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Ollie Schmid | 16c | 336.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…39dcbacked Ollie Schmid | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Ollie Schmid | 16c | 306.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd9…77cfbacked Ollie Schmid | 15c | 294.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3280…1901backed Ollie Schmid | 19c | 258.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…d123backed Ollie Schmid | 20c | 215.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Ollie Schmid | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed Marwan Rahiki | 80c | 197.64$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Marwan Rahiki | 69c | 166.6$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Ollie Schmid | 16c | 162.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…cb55backed Ollie Schmid | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf47…6c2ebacked Ollie Schmid | 16c | 148.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…94f6backed Ollie Schmid | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Ollie Schmid | 16c | 131.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Ollie Schmid | 16c | 129.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Marwan Rahiki | 72c | 122.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Ollie Schmid | 21c | 118.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Ollie Schmid | 16c | 108.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ollie Schmid | 14c | 107.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Ollie Schmid | 14c | 105.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Ollie Schmid | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Ollie Schmid | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e1…4fdebacked Ollie Schmid | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Ollie Schmid | 14c | 93.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Ollie Schmid | 16c | 89.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.25per pick | 31cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…f649backed Ollie Schmid | 15c | 87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Ollie Schmid | 16c | 79.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecb0…2329backed Ollie Schmid | 15c | 77.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Ollie Schmid | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451b…69b6backed Ollie Schmid | 20c | 73.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ollie Schmid | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 132 | 21.2%28 W · 104 L | -11.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd76…2fa3backed Ollie Schmid | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…287bbacked Ollie Schmid | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…1b8fbacked Ollie Schmid | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…86fdbacked Ollie Schmid | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 60.2%151 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe160…b6b9backed Ollie Schmid | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a04…2071backed Ollie Schmid | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Marwan Rahiki | 71c | 43.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…19f6backed Ollie Schmid | 50c | 25.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x957e…ed51backed Ollie Schmid | 50c | 21.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a0…22a4backed Marwan Rahiki | 50c | 21.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…75b7backed Marwan Rahiki | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Marwan Rahiki win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.