UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd47629c0d24bff9424e06c57441a128b4135efb76afd9a337ff14b18ce47d41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d5…8faebacked Over | 43c | 1,890$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…0eecbacked Under | 62c | 1,616$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 38c | 1,364$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.18 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 44c | 676$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.41 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 39c | 434.3$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.45 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 60c | 300.58$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.23 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Over | 38c | 224.25$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 40c | 213.66$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.22 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Under | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Under | 61c | 163.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…c6f9backed Under | 65c | 122.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b2…5fb4backed Over | 44c | 114.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 57c | 113.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Under | 59c | 102.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f63…89f3backed Under | 59c | 84.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked Under | 63c | 79.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…e99bbacked Over | 42c | 59.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked Over | 42c | 39.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)Marwan Rahiki won
- Will Marwan Rahiki win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.